from Amazon
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Betancourt and the Fans Scouting Report
RJ says:
Whatever, the larger point is that he’s claiming Yuniesky Betancourt looks like a good defender if you watch him every single game. That’s simply untrue.
For someone to think Betancourt is a good defender that person either has no idea what a good defender looks like, or simply can’t evaluate defensive ability. You know who watched Betancourt seemingly every day since his career began? The Mariners fan base.
...
Year – FSR/( UZR/150)
2005 – 89 / +2
2006 – 82 / +1
2007 – 69 / -1
2008 – 39 / -13
I do NOT believe in UZR trends. I DO believe in Fans’ Scouting Report trends. Without the Fans’, you look at the +2, +1, -1, -13, and see that someone who was a bit lucky his first three years, and very unlucky last year. With the Fans, that -13 is scary looking.
My favorite part of this whole Dayton Moore “Defense is obvious with your eyes” thing is that Zduriencik - who, it should be noted, is extremely well respected as a scout - publicly stated that they felt Cedeno was a defensive upgrade from Betancourt, which is one of the reasons they were willing to trade Yuni.
So, on one hand, you have the GM who has watched him everyday since he took over in Seattle saying “I can do better with the guy I got for nothing”. On the other hand, you have a GM who has probably seen him less than a dozen times over the last year stating that he’s obviously a good defender if you watch him play.
This isn’t even stats vs scouts. This is people who know what they’re talking about versus people who don’t.