THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

The numbers-free ARoid talk can be found here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/aroid/

This current thread should be discussed from a sabermetric viewpoint.

I agree, Tango, that his 2001-2003 numbers aren’t out of line.  However, this could lead to two distinct (if not opposite), conclusions:

1) PEDs didn’t affect Rodriguez’s numbers at all.

2) He was taking PEDs his whole career.

Which one are you shooting for?

Someone asked, and I responded:

...when we are talking about 1250 AB, and if someone has the talent where we expect him to hit 100 HR, then one standard deviation (SD) is almost 10 HR. 

ARod, in his last two Seattle years, hit 83 HR in 1056 AB.  In his first two Texas years he had 1256 AB.  So, prorating his Mariner years, we get 99 HR in 1256 AB.  In his first two Texas years, he hit 109 HR.  Forgive me for not getting excited that a player, on the upswing, in a hitter’s park, managed to hit one SD more HR than his previous sample.

There’s more evidence that ARod has been negatively impacted by playing in New York than there is of his drug use having a positive impact in Texas.