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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Best pitching seasons, last 11 years

By Tangotiger, 01:18 PM

Pedro, RJ, and a few others.  If you don’t like the list (say, missing Cliff Lee, not enough Johan Santana), then you must not like the inputs used.  Choose your inputs, choose your process, and create your own list.  Do NOT start with the end-result and try to work backwards to fit your story.  You can take that kind of thinking someplace else.


#1    ubelmann      (see all posts) 2009/10/06 (Tue) @ 14:35

Looking at the methodology, it makes sense that there isn’t more Santana.  He’s been great, but since he was kept pretty strictly from 110+ pitch games (and usually right around 100 pitches), he wasn’t going to match Randy Johnson’s quantity, and his rate stats look less impressive next to Pedro’s when you consider that Pedro was pitching in a much better environment for hitters.  (For the record, I think that keeping him on a pitch count was the right choice.  It was both good for his rate stats and his longevity, but it does limit how much he can do in any given season.)

Santana’s also historically had a very good IFFB%, so something like tRA might view him more favorably than FIP.  I’m not sure which other pitchers might benefit from using something like tRA, though.


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