THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, March 23, 2009

Best Goalie in the last 60 years

By Tangotiger, 04:22 PM

Having grownup watching Patrick Roy, who won the Stanley Cup in his rookie season as playoff MVP, and dominated the NHL goalie scene as well as spur on a whole generation of Quebec goalies to make it to the NHL, it is very easy for me to disagree with Tom as ranking Patrick #1, and go with Dominik Hasek as the best goalie of that time period.

Both goalies were born in the same year (1965), and while Roy made his mark his first year (1985/86), Hasek set the NHL on fire in 1993/94. That is an 8-year headstart for Roy (6 if you want to include Hasek’s two backup years). Hasek however, in those missing years, was Czech goalie of the year for 5 straight years (1986-1990), and PLAYER of the year for 3 of those years, while being in the Canada Cup as his team’s starting goalie in 1987. (This to go along with his five goalie of the year and 2 player of the year in the NHL.)

This is a Bobby Orr situation in reverse. While Bobby Orr is recognized as the greatest defenseman of all time (and will continue to be for at least the next decade, even in the face of Niklas Lidstrom), his career was over at age 26. Hasek’s NHL career started in his late 20s, and so, he didn’t have the “counting” stats (in the NHL) to build on.

But, as I’ve said in the past, referring to Koufax and Pedro and Edgar, I am interested in Observed Performance Inferring True Talent (OPITT). For hockey fans outside of Detroit who see Bobby Orr as the clear #1 defenseman, and a clear top 5 player of all time, this is exactly how hockey fans (implicitly) think as well. There’s no longevity v peak discussion in hockey.

I believe this is true in most sports, and only not true in baseball because baseball has too many numbers for us to consider.

• Sabermetrics • Talent_Distribution • Other Sports • Hockey

#1 (see all posts) 2009/03/23 (Mon) @ 18:27

Not really related to the goalies post, but am wondering your opinion: Where do you place Lidstrom on the all-time list? As a Red Wings fan, I know he gets plenty of “best in the game today” pub, but really still feel like he’ll be undervalued because of the subtlety of his defensive prowess (i.e. he’s not as noticeable as a Pronger is because of the physicality Pronger brings).

#2 Leslie Treff (see all posts) 2009/03/23 (Mon) @ 18:36

I totally agree that Dominik Hasek is the best goalie of the modern era, and was disappointed with Tom’s results.

We need to be careful evaluating hockey player stats, particularly when the player spends more than a year or two of their career in Europe, which is omitted (of course, they would have to be adjusted to be included). We also have the added problem that the game has changed over the last forty years. Equipment changes and the back and forth over whether or not a player can be in the crease are just two examples of the many things that can have an effect on stats.

Some of the adjustments that would be needed to draw an accurate comparison between netminders over particular years are just not feasible.

While I appreciate Tom’s efforts, I kept coming up with holes as I read. I admire that he took on the subject, but I don’t think that the picture is anywhere near complete.

#3 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/03/23 (Mon) @ 18:50

I haven’t looked at it.

I’d probably put Lidstrom in a category with Bourque and Larry Robinson. All three of them would be a huge step behind Orr. The gap between these 3 and Orr would be larger than whoever else is behind them.

#4 (see all posts) 2009/03/23 (Mon) @ 20:53

Maybe Hasek = Lefty Grove, who spent I think four years dominating (no pun intended) the International League, before being sold to the A’s?

#5 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/03/23 (Mon) @ 21:14

Or Jackie Robinson…

#6 Tyler (see all posts) 2009/03/23 (Mon) @ 23:48

There’s never been a run of save percentage relative to league in the time that it’s been recorded like Hasek’s six year peak.

As an aside, I was driven nuts that there was no link to an explanation of GVT. I figured with those guys starting out fresh, I wouldn’t have to get up to speed like I did in 2002 when I got back into baseball and BPro just seemed like alphabet soup to me.

#7 Ryan JL (see all posts) 2009/03/24 (Tue) @ 03:23

I always found it somewhat interesting that in the 9 seasons that Roy and Hasek were both starting goaltenders in the NHL, Hasek won the Vezina 6 times and Roy 0, yet I get the impression that those very same people who vote on such awards would choose Roy as the best goalie overall. How does one reconcile that?

#8 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2009/03/24 (Tue) @ 07:05

By a wink and putting Roy’s Cup rings in your ears?

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, March 23, 2009

Best Goalie in the last 60 years

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