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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, December 01, 2011

Belichick tells reporters to get their noses out of their spreadsheets and watch a game

By Tangotiger, 03:03 PM

Or something to that effect.

Basically he’s saying two things:
1. It’s not the 8-3 Patriots against the 0-11 Colts, but individual matchups on a play-by-play basis.  In terms of something actionable, that’s all that matters.  You can have a great receiver on the Colts and on the Packers, and it won’t influence the defense as to whether that guy happens to be on an 0-11 or an 11-0 team (other than the fact that he’s probably surrounded by better players).

2. If you bring a certain amount less than your best, any team can lose.  The Colts have scored as many as 24 points, and given up as few as 17 points.  The Patriots have given up as many as 34 points and scored as few as 17.  Even if both teams play to the maximum of their potential, it’s still possible that the Colts can beat the Patriots if they get more lucky breaks than them.

So, yeah, focusing on the record is something that the media does, and then the media reports on the story they happened to create, and then they want the players and coach to respond to this made-up story.



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