from Amazon
Friday, June 15, 2007
Batted Ball Breakdown
The always resourceful Dan Fox gives us a breakdown of batted balls. Here’s the summary, with a little change on my part:
HITS. SLG.. LWTS w/GIDP Type
0.728 0.940 +.324 +.324 Line
0.177 0.302 –.126 –.126 Fly
0.241 0.262 –.108 –.126 Ground
0.020 0.024 –.284 –.284 Pop
Those numbers EXCLUDE homeruns in the numerator and denominator. So, a flyball is a hit only 17.7% of the time, but the slugging average on a flyball is .302. Groundballs have a hit .241 times, but with a slugging average of .262. As it turns out, the extra oomph on extra bases for flyballs can’t overcome the extra outs for a hitter. The Linear Weights run value of a flyball (excluding HR) is about .02 runs lower than your standard groundball. However, don’t forget the GIDP. Throw the GIDP in, and guess what? The run value of a FB and GB are virtually equal!
But remember, the reason that we prefer GB pitchers, generally speaking, is that they give up less HR.
The run value of a line drive is similar to that of a walk, and the run value of a popup is similar to that of a strikeout.
FYI, this is exactly what we presented in last year’s THT Annual.