THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, August 29, 2011

Basketball Players League

Of all the sports that could start its own league, it’s basketball.

Hockey would have a bit of a tough time, for one big reason: The Stanley Cup.  The Cup is actually not owned by the NHL, seeing that it predates the NHL itself.  Instead, it has trustees appointed.  There was some “transfer” or “delegation” that occurred that makes the NHL defacto “owner”, but until a court actually rules on that, the ownership thing is in limbo.  Nonetheless, players play for the Stanley Cup, and anything else will be considered second fiddle.

Setting that aside, then hockey and baseball would face similar challenges: venues and tradition.  The NHL did face competition from WHA in the 1970s, and the WHA was able to compete for talent based on salary, and they did attract star player, notably the older Bobby Hull and Gordie Howe (but still very talented).  And the NHL has a draft age of 20 (!), so they also attracted “underaged” players like Wayne Gretzky (well, there was no one like him, but they got him and all the underaged players).

And NFL has done a great job of making football about the “team” and not about players.  It doesn’t take much for a Packers fan to turn its back on Brett Favre.  What counts is the uniform, just like college football.

But basketball?  You don’t have 20 or 25 or 45 man rosters.  You’ve got 12 guys.  And, the superstar has a far larger impact in basketball than the other sports.  So, you can easily create a 12-team league made up of superstars.  You don’t have the same sense of history and tradition that you do with NHL and MLB.  You don’t have the same live-and-die attitude as you do with football.

And forcing players to get less than they think they deserve is just what led to the NHL/WHA competition for talent.  There’s a certain level below which players will revolt. 

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Related article: Forbes.

Lacob reportedly paid $ 450 million for the Warriors. That franchise price only makes sense if LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, etc… come play his Warriors. If these players are all in a new league, Lacob will stand to lose much of his investment in the Warriors. And the same story will be repeated for the other 29 owners. Faced with potential loss of the one thing fans are willing to pay to see (i.e. elite basketball talent), one suspects the stand the owners are currently taking will crumble.

And when that happens… well, I still think the players and cities should form their own league. Either way, though, fans will once again get to see basketball played at the highest level in the world.