THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I looked at what seems to be the payoff stat, which seems to work out as:

Bases/4 + Runs
------------
Outs

Where:
bases = TB+BB+HB+SB+SH+SF
runs = (RS + RBI)/2

This is similar to Messmer’s StatOne, which I panned.

In one of the articles that BarryCode.com linked to, it had an enjoyable interview with Codell.  He seemed to be highly respected.

In this day and age of internet, information, and wiki, it is strange how people turn a blind eye to advancement.  I am conflicted in how much time and effort I should expend in trying to get some of these people on the right path, or simply march along and hope that those who want to follow along as well do.

I think the only thing that I actually agreed with was the HR in 4 AB shouldn’t be equal to 2 2B in 4 AB, but this would be solved with regular linear weights anyways.  Otherwise, these formulae just seem like arbitrary arithmetical methods being employed on a variety of different stats. 

I really don’t think it’s worth your time.  If he has gone to such great lengths to maintain that site, no way he just automatically drops these formulas in favor of the more accurate, and less time consuming methods.

Is that Barry setting up the site or just an apostle of his?

That’s what I need on my site, some religion & mythology.  I think I’ll borrow heavily from the Hindus.  Most other religions don’t have enough reverence for the monkey.

I have no doubt that it is his followers.

I think that site is pulling our leg concerning their devotion and reverence to Codell.

I don’t think so.  There is an enormous amount of effort that went into that site.

From what I gather, the guy who runs the site befriended Barry (who apparently is very private and doesn’t use a computer) and got his blessing to create the site.  But I don’t believe that Codell is involved beyond that.

Barry and Don (the website guy) were both at the Chicago SABR Chapter meeting back in early June.  They had handouts of all of the stats (most of the same info on the website).
They introduced themselves and talked a bit about what they’re doing.  Don runs the website and updates the stats now, using Barry’s name and original formulas. 
It was probably pretty good compared to the alternatives around the time it first came out.  Fortunately a lot of progress has been made in 30 years.

Good morning gentlemen, it’s Don Sevcik from the Barry Code.  A bit of background on the site, Mr. Codell supplied me his batting/pitching/fielding statistics and I put them up from there.  I met him in mid 2007 through Math Celebrity and we forged a relationship from there.  The site has been live since January of 2009.  It’s just me doing updates/code/data, and adding stats with his blessing. 

As I said on Patriot’s site, some of the language is meant to be cheeky.  Us programmers are a quirky bunch.  Regarding the comments on advancements in formulas, I always like to explore and hear the other side.  If the folks on this thread could pick one stat they think would best represent hitting efficiency, which would it be?  I’d like to check it out.  If you don’t want to post on the thread, feel free to e-mail me on the site.

Are Bases/Outs perfect?  No, but some of Mr. Codell’s more modern stats have a very close correlation with actual results.  One of the folks on our site ran analysis with the RR statistic by season and noticed a near 100% correlation between runs scored and Barry’s RR stat for team leaders.

I didn’t want to limit the site to just Codell’s stats, which is why I built the Traditional leaderboard, as well as a hybrid option where one can intermix Traditional and Codell statistics.

As for Sabermetrics, I have a deep respect for the folks who do the research.  In fact, in a few months, we may put up a “calculator” option which allows you to enter your own statistical formula, and then see who the leaders are based on the drop down combinations presented on that site.  I think it would be a good point of reference to see where the Base/Out folks versus the more algebraic formulas of today hold their weight.

Any other thoughts you have, please let me know.  Have a great day, and keep up the fantastic research!

If you have to pick one rate stat, weight on base percentage is probably the way to go. 

If you’re trying to use the stat to correlate to actual team runs, then displaying the unadjusted stat works fine.

Any kind of list the claims “best hitting seasons” or “best career hitters” MUST be adjusted for context (league, ballpark).  Who had a better hitting season, Carl Yastrzemski in 1968 or Brian Giles in 2000?  The answer is Yaz, even though his OPS, RC, Base/out, etc. will all be lower than Giles, and it’s because of the conditions he played in.

If it does not take context into account, then it can’t and won’t be taken seriously.

Thanks Rally, I’ll take a look.

Hi Tom, I wanted to mention that the Barry Code has a new feature called the Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED) Filter on his site. With it you can eliminate players from the lists by using this filter. Check it out when you get a chance. It is pretty cool.

Back in 1979, while I was in college, I believe I saw an ad for Mr. Codell’s ‘Base/Out’ and ordered a copy. I calculated the 2009 numbers and normalized it to a scale of avg=50, generally ranging from 0 to 100 (I must have been thinking Fahrenheit). Then I made up a booklet and sent it to every major league team.

I got two or three responses. One was a nice letter from Tom Wright of the Texas Rangers who gave me the address of this guy in Kansas named Bill James and suggested I should by his book.

I would have hired you on the spot if you were able to present 2009 stats before many of those players were even born.  Would have made life really easy for my scouts.

Barry Code has a new feature called the Performance Enhancing Drugs (PED) Filter on his site. With it you can eliminate players from the lists by using this filter.

No doubt it’s the Codell Adjusted Non Steroid Enhanced Contribution Opportunities.

I reckon you would have. 1979 of course. Now I get to have senior moments

One was a nice letter from Tom Wright of the Texas Rangers

Do you mean “Craig Wright”?

That’s what I mean by senior moments...yes I meant Craig, and I can think of no reason I would have said Tom...maybe I need a nap

Tom House + Craig Wright = Tom Wright.

Bingo!