THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

After watching the video on a response from Tom Tango about the 72% LOB in the first video, I came across the following.

In further news, Tom Tango sings as a cat.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q1DNccc97E

#1/ Whelp, at least I now know what the substance of my nightmares will be tonight.

"About 70% of all balls hit in the chalk become outs even if Joe Fan is hitting.”

Going to have to disagree with the video there.

That being said all your videos have been great and entertaining Bradley.  Hope you keep them coming.

Thanks, Sean! I’m glad you like the videos.

Which part about that comment would you suggest I alter? Is it the assumption that Joe Fan will have a normal distribution of LDs, FBs, and GBs?

I agree, that’s not a true statement.  Maybe if you want to say if JoeFan is PITCHING.  But certainly not hitting.

BABIP by primary position, since 1993:

BABIP PosPrim
0.306 RF
0.305 CF
0.303 LF
0.303 2B
0.303 1B
0.298 SS
0.297 DH
0.296 3B
gap
0.288 C
...
GAP
...
0.225 P

BABIP as pitcher, since 1993:

BABIP Primary Position
.295 Pitcher
.292 Non-Pitcher (301 BIP)

***

All the stats:

Nosurprise that nonpitchers are much worse in the component numbers: 27% more HR, 92% more walks+hitbatters, and 53% fewer strikeouts.

And even against all that, pretty much the same BABIP!

I talked about the reason for this in Hardball Times Annual. Let me repeat it here:

Is it so hard to believe that once you remove all the great pitches (those that lead to strikeouts) and bad pitches (those that lead to walks and home runs), that of the remaining pitches, the resulting outcomes of pitches thrown by MLB pitchers are all basically similar, regardless of who threw them?

Well thanks to Tango for doing the work for me.

Not to get too far off subject about the video, but I do wonder if Joe Fan was pitching and could put up the 71% number that Tango is showing.  These are still professionally athletes for the non-pitcher group and are getting the chance to pitch most likely based on previous experience or showing they can somewhat handle it. 

I’d be curious of the velocity of non pitchers group if anyone has that data going back to whenever is possible.  Then if anyone would guess how hard a healthy 25-30 aged male average fan could throw a ball over the plate (even though that in itself isn’t the average fan).

What I was surprised with was that 26% of all batters faced ended up with K, BB, or HB, REGARDLESS if they were a pitcher or non-pitcher on the mound!

Basically, every drop in K was matched with an increase in walk.

But, yeah, these guys are still the best pitchers among non-pitchers among MLB players.  Not necessarily Joe Fan.  But, still, these numbers are still pretty shocking, aren’t they?  We’re getting enormous changes in K and BB, and no change in BABIP at all.

If all current major league pitchers disappeared and were replaced by guys in AA and AAA, would league average BABIP (and its distribution) remain the same?  The number from the non-pitcher group seem to suggest that’s the case.

Or to take it a step further, what would the BABIP be if players simply hit off a tee?  Heck, that seems downright testable!

It’s definitely interesting to think of it from a pitch perspective on a simple 2x2 of location and quality (velocity, movement, etc.).

If a pitch is outside of the zone, it’s quality probably isn’t terribly relevant.  If it is in the zone and it’s of good quality, it has a decent chance of not being hit at all.  If is in the zone and of bad quality, it has a decent chance of being crushed out of the yard.  So there are some pretty natural barriers around the event of “ball in play” that would seem to lead to similar outcomes by definition.

The real genius of DIPS theory is in the “ball in play” construction to begin with.  It’s a pretty powerful filter.

Right, the DIPS filter basically removes all the extreme results, and then basically claims that those that are left are not biased by pitcher.

They are however biased by hitter.