THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I took a look at the post and found it interesting and frustrating (I tried to post a response there, but Blogspot was acting up).  Essentially, the analysis is a bivariate regression with the result

ATT = 22754 - 142*(Average Ticket Price)

The first issue, of course, is that attendance is “censored” for a number of the observations, because of sellouts.

But that’s manageable.  Beyond that, it should be clear that other factors affect attendance--team performance, city demographics (population, income), other market forces (directly competing teams, as in the NYC area; NBA franchises, etc.).

If we look at the results, and if we assume profit-maximizing behavior on the part of owners, we’d conclude that the profit-maximizing ticket price is around $90 and the profit-maximizing attendance is around 11,500 per game.  Neither of those seems likely.

It’s a start, but it’s not all that overwhelming a piece of analysis.  (I’m unable to find any extended academic studies of NHL attendance that include price variables, but I’d bet that some have been done.)

"Expected” attendance and/or actual capacity should itself also be a parameter.

In Montreal, we have a CFL (football) team, that used to play at the Olympic Stadium.  Because of a scheduling conflict with U2, the Alouettes ended up playing at McGill Stadium (college, seats under 20K, with half the “seats” being crappy wood on cement).  It was the best thing that could have happened to the team.  The atmosphere was incredible, and now, it was where everyone wanted to go.  With only 15-20K seats available (and downtown), everyone wanted to go there.  (By the way, the Expos would have similarly have profited from a downtown move.  Weep.)

In NJ, where I now live, the Devils never sellout.  High ticket prices is one (and location), but, also because it’s not a hockey market enough to support capacity.  Since the fans know the game won’t sellout, they don’t have the pressure to pre-buy, or look for a game.  Whenever the mood strikes you, you can go.

In NY, the Rangers not only compete against the Knicks, but also against Broadway, restaurants, and virtually any entertainment form you can imagine (and not imagine).  A Ranger ticket is cheap in comparison, while a Devils ticket is expensive in comparison to the NJ life, even if they are the same price, and they are 10 miles from MSG.

The linked study is a great start, and hopefully others can pick up the ball.