THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Another pitch f/x article

The more folks that are researching the pitch f/x data, the merrier.  As we never tire of saying, it is a virtual treasure trove of information, if not the holy grail of pitcher evaluation, as well as pitcher and batter “scouting.”

Here is a tidbit from the (short) article and analysis:

Glavine is a nibbler on the mound. Early in the at-bat he is going to aim for the very edge of the corner of the plate. If the batter swings, he probably isn’t swinging at a very good pitch. If the batter takes the pitch, Glavine still might get the call from the umpire.

That said, this strategy causes Glavine to fall behind many batters. This spells doom for most pitchers who promptly throw a fastball down the middle, which gets hammered. Glavine doesn’t give in. On 2-0, 2-1 and 3-1 counts Glavine threw 76 changes while PITCHf/x was tracking. During those same counts, Glavine threw only 69 fastballs! He may throw you something that gets more of the plate, but with such a high percentage of changeups, batters who sit dead red are playing right into Glavine’s hands. Compare those numbers with those of Santana, who threw 73 fastballs and 13 changeups on those hitter’s counts.

Bold and emphasis mine.

If Galvine is throwing more than 50% changeups in those counts, something which surely the advance scouts know and tell their hitters (if not, it would be a crime), why would anyone be sitting dead read?!

Regardless of the count (or game situation), a hitter should not be sitting on anything but whatever the pitcher throws a preponderance of, if he does throw one pitch or another a preponderous of the time in a certain situation.  If it is Santana, then a hitter can be sitting dead read (looking for the fastball).  If it is Glavine, then the hitter should be expecting the changeup or fastball, each around half the time, and do whatever he needs to do to prepare for that.

Now, why should someone like Glavine who has a good, but not great, changeup and a poor fastball, throw 50% changeups, whereas Santana, with a great changeup and great fastball, throw mostly fastballs in those counts?

This issue is complicated, but there are basically two reasons:  One, the better your pitch, the more you can throw it.  By better, I mean, “If the batter knows it is coming, can he hit it well?” Obviously if a batter knew that an 84 mph fastball were coming from a LHP, as in Glavine, he would hammer the pitch (obviously some 84 mph fastballs are better than others and it depends also on the average location).  So Glavine cannot simply throw a fastball most of the time when he is behind in the count.  Santana (and other pitchers) can because even if the batter knows what is coming (which he should since that is pretty much all Santana throws when behind in the count, according to the author), he is not going to do THAT much damage.

Two, when behind in the count, no matter what, you MUST tend to throw a pitch that you can control for a strike some requisite amount of time.  Glavine apparently can do that with the changeup, and perhaps Santana cannot (or his fastball is so good).  Actually even with a great fastball, if he could control his changeup that well, why not throw it 20 or 30% of the time when behind in the count?  If he can do that, his fastball is going to be that much harder to hit OR the changeup will be almost impossible to hit (if the batter is still looking fastball).

Also, what a pitcher does when behind in the count is partially dictated by what he does at other counts.  Let’s say that a pitcher is awesome at all other counts (non-hitter counts).  At hitter counts, he can “afford” to get hit hard.  Even if he does, he is still going to (presumably) be a good pitcher.  A pitcher like Glavine is not going to be awesome on neutral and pitcher’s counts, at least as compared to other pitchers, because he simply does not have the skill anymore.  So in order to be an overall effective pitcher, and still pitch in the majors, he darn well cannot afford to get tagged in hitters’ counts!

One more thing.  Off-speed pitches only have value when the batter has to worry about fastballs.  Fastballs have value no matter what, even when the batter knows they are coming, especially if the fastball is “good” (movement, deception, location, and speed).  So, a pitcher can NEVER throw an offspeed pitch (well, at least a changeup) a large percentage of the time, even if he can control it well.  Imagine a pitcher who throws a changeup 80% of the time in a certain situation.  Assuming the batter knows that a changeup is coming (which he should since the pitcher throws it 80% of the time), it is no longer a changeup, but just a battting practice fastball.

Also, the idea that you don’t throw a first pitch changeup is silly.  While there is SOME value to throwing a changeup AFTER a batter has seen your fastball, as long as you throw a lot of fastballs on your first pitch, there is NOTHING wrong with throwing an occasional first pitch changeup, assuming you can throw it for a strike a requisite percentage of the time AND the batter is a first pitch swinger (if he is not, why throw anything but your best pitch for a strike - usually the fastball?).

Anyway, I mainly wanted to address the erroneous notion that a pitcher can effectively throw a cerftain pitch a lot because the batter is looking for another pitch, as well as the equally erroneous notion that the batter looks for a certain pitch or combination of pitches based on the game situation.  That is not true, as illustrated by the Glavine/Santana comparison in the article.  A batter simply reacts to what THE PITCHER throws in any particular situation.  One pitcher’s fastball count can be another pitcher’s half fastball/half off-speed count, as with Glavine and Santana.  If a batter anticipates a pitch according to the count/game situation without considering the pitcher then either he is stupid or inecperienced, or the coaches are not doing their jobs.

And, that is one reason why it is true that a batters who has not faced a pitcher has the disadvantage.  No question about it.