THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Jered Weaver usually looks about as “disinterested” as MGL looks “concise”.  He holds himself to a high standard and often yells at himself if he doesn’t meet it.  Unlike his brother, he never pouts or gets angry when others on his team mess up.

I was at the game, sadly.  I agree it was the right move.  Starting Jeff Mathis was not.

mgl, might something be wrong with your projections if they are consistently winning that many more than you projected?  I find it hard to believe that any manager is worth as many wins as you seem to be implying Scioscia is worth.

I could be horribly wrong, but aren’t the Angels usually among the worst in baserunning outs (CS)? They’re known for their small-ball tactics that some sabermetricians (not always, or only, you guys) often rail on.

mgl, might something be wrong with your projections if they are consistently winning that many more than you projected?  I find it hard to believe that any manager is worth as many wins as you seem to be implying Scioscia is worth.

Who knows?  No, I don’t believe a manager is worth more than a 2-3 wins a year, but you never know.

I’m sure there are plenty of other reasons why my projections for ANA have been bad.

As far as Weaver’s “look,” you obviously see him way more often than I do. To me, he just has that same “I don’t give a crap” look that his brother did.  Of course, Jered is a very good pitcher, whereas his brother once was a very good pitcher a long time ago and for some reason (I have no idea what it is) became a terrible pitcher.

I am in no way implying anything about Weaver’s state of mind.  Only the way his countenance appears to me.

I think Scoscia is one of the worst managers when it comes to offense. His offensive philosophy constantly has his teams giving up outs. The Angels run as much as anybody and they’re always around break even, if not worse. He seems to love all the gimmicky stuff like hit and runs, too.

On the other hand. he seems to be really good with using his relievers, though he’s used K-Rod a ton this year.

I’m not sure what Scoscia has done this year to make his defense play out of its mind, which has helped make Saunders and Santana really good when I think they’re probably just sort of good.

Angels have been above break even in basestealing pretty much every year.  This year they have 62 steals, 23 CS.  As for giving away outs, they have 12 sac bunts all year.

His fault as manager is lineup selection - there is no excuse for batting Erick Aybar anywhere higher than 8th.  And Garret Anderson remaining in the #3 spot.  I’m really tired of both Anderson and Matthews and would prefer some extended playing time for Willits and Rivera.

Good call on pulling Weaver for the PH.  It was the right thing to do.  He might have pitched Lackey too far today, with a 1-0 game and well-rested K-Rod I would have preferred Frankie starting the 9th (Lackey was right around 100 pitches).  Lackey got 2 outs, put 2 guys on, and then Frankie came in to save it.

Don’t the Angels go from 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home a lot more and at a greater efficiency than any other team in the league? I think I saw an article on that a few months ago, but I don’t have the data on me.
That said, their team OBA is simply putrid right now.

ANA has had some of the best team baserunning lwts in the last several years.

07 ANA +13

The next 2 best were TEX at +13 and WAS at +11 (who woulda thunk?)

In 06, they were +23.  The next best was KC at +9.  That is incredible.

In 05, they were +5, which was tied for 5th best in the AL.

In 04, they were -1.
03, +2.
02, 0. 
01, +11.
00, -1. 
99, +8.

He has been managing since 00.  He has averaged +7.4 runs per season in baserunning.  How much of that is his players and how much of that is him or someone else, I have no idea.  We’d have to do a “with and without you” with his players to get some idea.

If the high bsr numbers started in 2004, I’d say it coincided perfectly with Chone Figgins.  Must be Molina weighing the numbers down in 2004-05.

Bengie averaged -5 per season in 04-05.  Figgins averaged +5 per season in 04-07.

Scioscia’s lineup choices make me wonder.  Erick Aybar hitting 3rd?  Really?

A. In most cases it makes little difference what lineup a manager puts out there.

B. I challenge anyone, including myself, to have any idea what an optimal lineup is, without using some kind of lineup simulator.

C. Whatever the manager might “know” that we don’t and/or whatever slot or slots a player may or may not be comfortable in might cancel out or at least offset any “paper mistake” the manager makes in lineup construction.

I don’t criticize managers anymore for lineups, other than constantly changing them, which I think is counter-productive in most cases, other than versus L and R starting pitchers.

I should know better than to criticize Mike’s lineup.
Aybar went deep today.

I told you he was the best!

Actually I should keep criticizing.  I’ve been calling for Garret Anderson’s replacement for awhile now (that kind of happens when the numbers say you are a replacement level outfielder) and on Tuesday he wins the game with a homer off Embree.

I’ll keep criticizing, and Mike’s boys can keep proving me wrong.  Sounds like a plan.

I’m an A’s fan and everytime I hear Embrees name come up I cringe, especially if I have money on the game.

The guy who pitched before Embree was doing just fine. I don’t know why he took him out and brought in Embree. The manager blew that one! I lost some respect for the A’s manager.

I think you don’t like Embree, Arthur, because of his big ears!

I don’t have the numbers right now to back up my claim, but “everytime” I see or hear Embrees name come up in high leverage or a close game sitiuation. Embree is NOT the guy to go to, I believe. A’s bullpen has better guys to go to than Embree (again in close games). Not to mention A’s have a solid history of blowing it late in a game.

Garret (crappy player) got lucky on that HR bottom of the seventh because he got to face a mediocre Embree. BTW,I bet, under 6.5, on that game.

Also I think Ellis got lucky with that HR top of the 7th 2 outs none on, or Shields underesimated Ellis’ power that he attained not that long ago all of a sudden. Still Scotty should of know better.