from Amazon
Monday, March 22, 2010
Ace relievers
In a response to the Bill James note regarding relievers from pre-2003
1. We excerpted the “three-run lead” part of the relief chapter in SI when The Book first came out. There’s some good stuff in there. I’d say it’s worth five minutes of your time.
2. James was mostly right, but partly wrong, regarding leverage, especially the tie-game. Really, it just comes down to the 3-run lead in the ninth inning. It sometimes comes down to letting your ace pitch two innings with a 1-run or 2-run lead in the 8th. It often comes down to your ace reliever pitching in blowout games, as he’s been sitting around waiting for a “save” situation that never came, and so, he’s going to pitch in games with no game impact just to keep him fresh.
3. Rob Wood did a fantastic piece, that should be re-read annually.
Yup, that Rob Wood piece is very good. I had forgotten about it.
Evidence that the current usage pattern of relievers, especially the ace reliever, is NOT near-optimal, given the “hidden costs,” is this:
One, in “the old days” and before the advent of the save statistic, ace relievers were used much differently.
Two, we KNOW that managers make many, many mistakes and are not very good in general at making optimal statistical decisions, and are not the brightest bulbs in the house. Why would this be different?