THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, July 27, 2007

A writer who understands odds!

Heyman, pp 66-67 of this week’s SI, on the odds of ARod going to various teams:

Yanks, Even
Angels, 5-1
Redsox, 8-1
Giants, 12-1
Dodgers, 15-1
Cubs, 25-1
Whitesox, 75-1
Mets, 150-1
Rest, 30-1

What does “even odds” mean?  It’s means it’s a 50/50 shot.  That is, 0.500 chances per event of occurring.  A 5-1 bet means it has 1 chance in 6 of happening, meaning 0.167.  If you add it up, you get: 1.007.

When writers make these “odds” articles, it’s obvious they’ve spent too much time in Vegas, as when you add it up, you’ll get something like 1.30 to 1.60.  Basically, they give out odds so favorable to themselves (as writers/bookies) that it makes them look really good.  For example, a writer other than Heyman would have given the Angels also even odds (.500 instead of .167).  All of a sudden, the total chances comes out to 1.34.  That’s what Vegas would do. 

But, to a writer, he’s just made himself look really good, because now he can claim, if the Angels sign him, that he gave them even odds.  And if the Yanks sign him, well he gave them even odds too.  And if someone else signs him?  Well, he gave a 34% chance of that happening.  I’ll take half, you take half, and we’ll give him the third half.

Because Heyman’s total came in so remarkably close to 1.00, I have to believe that Heyman understands real odds, and he made darn sure that things would add up nice, while using nice round numbers, like “75-1” and “30-1”.