THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

If a reporter doesn’t turn a split into a story, then what’s he going to talk about?

I can think of lots of things, but they might be boring to the average reader.

I don’t think reporters are doing this intentionally.  They obviously believe in the significance of all the splits.  I assume that someone like Neyer or Poz would not ask those kinds of questions and that they would find something else to talk about…

Reporters should use their interview as an opportunity to teach fans about the game. The Fan graphs interview of Kelly Johnson that was posted today is an EXCELLENT example of what every good baseball reporter should do. Give the subject an opportunity to talk intelligently about something he is very knowledgeable about.

You ask an inane question - ‘how long have you been a black quarterback?’ - you get an inane answer.

Over the last 2 seasons, Garcia is better at home, in 2011 he’s much better at home.

Whether we or he can identify the reasons or not, I’m still pitching him at home, Games 2 and 6.

So, he just happens to have more bad starts on the road. Is there really nothing to it, or might there be something to it?

For whatever reason more of his bad starts happen on the road. So, pitch him at home 2 times in this series. It works out like that anyway. Makes more sense to pitching him at home 2 and 6 and let Jackson (an equal pitcher without the home/road splits) in Game 3.

Brings up an interesting question whether Garcia, a more GB pitcher than Jackson would give the cards a better chance to win at Arlington, due to the nature of balls to carry in that park?

I’m not sure Edwin Jackson has ever had a “home stadium”. *grin*

"An aspiring saberist or just a smart guy?”

If you go by the Orioles-draft-Garcia story—they didn’t sign him because he failed some sort of written test—then I guess the answer is aspiring saberist.

#5, That tends to happens when you speak another language and they translate the test into the language you speak incorrectly.

Circle, you can use things like that as tie-breakers.  Other than that, I’m tired of responding, with all due respect.

Repeat after me:

“Opinions without evidence…

Opinions without evidence....

Opinions without evidence....”

Please spare us.

I don’t care how much knowledge and experience you have.

Here is an MGL’ism along the lines of the Zen-master:

“Experience is often the enemy of the truth...”

Circle, you’re everything that a manager is, which is not necessarily a bad thing. SOME of your insight, knowledge, and experience is valuable on this blog.

However, a big part of sabermetrics, at least a vestige of it, is to show all the things that managers (and most people in general) believe that are simply not true.  Rather than keep digging your heels in, learn something. You must be on this site for a reason other than to keep telling us that conventional wisdom is right and we are wrong.  Or, more along the lines of your tone, “Yeah, you guys might be right, but...”

Your “buts” HAVE TO HAVE EVIDENCE for anyone to take them seriously. If you don’t have the expertise to do the research, then cite research from someone who does.  If not, and I mean this teasingly, “Shuddupp!”

You say, “If it were me, I would pitch him at home.  The splits are so large they must mean something.” Evidence?  No!

Your gonna respond positively, as you always do, and I appreciate that, but save it.  Then 10 minutes later, you’re going to say, “Yeah, but...”

How about, “I think the world is flat and that we, as human beings, were spawned by aliens who landed here a long time ago.  And we never landed on the moon and 9/11 was a conspiracy by the U.S. government?”

These are opinions same as yours.  Evidence?  Nah.  Don’t pay them any mind and I won’t pay yours.  Deal?

mgl,

Other than that, I’m tired of responding, with all due respect.

Save the “due respect” and all the other stuff, just say what you have to say.

Opinions without evidence…

Jaime Garcia having better results at home for his 2-year career is NOT an opinion.

You said ...

Circle, you can use things like that as tie-breakers.

I said ...

For whatever reasons more of his bad starts happen on the road. So, pitch him at home 2 times in this series. It works out like that anyway. Makes more sense to pitch him at home 2 and 6 and let Jackson (an equal pitcher without the home/road splits) in Game 3.

Didn’t I just use home/road splits as a tie breaker between two roughly equal pitchers?

Jump all over me when I say something that’s not supported by data or is based on nothing more than my vast personal experience and/or incredible knowledge, or even my rugged good looks, but don’t you think you’re getting a little carried away with some of the tone and remarks based on what I’ve said in this thread?

I’m not one of the guys from BTF.

Circle, you’re everything that a manager is, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

I’m not a manager, I’m a coach. I teach mechanics. I love baseball and statistics, and the analysis of statistics. That’s why I am here. Sabermetrics combines two of the things I love most.

You must be on this site for a reason other than to keep telling us that conventional wisdom is right and we are wrong.

Am I really doing that?

I don’t think that’s an accurate statement in general.

--------------------------

In this situation we have 2 pitchers, Garcia and Jackson that are equal talent/WAR. One of them is much better at home than on the road. You have a home game for game 2, you have to pitch one of them. How do you decide which?

It’s an argument looking for a topic. 

You use the splits solely for tie-breaker, and to get paid a million dollars by Fox.

Circle, no problem.  You did say it was a tie breaker and I have no problem with that, as I said.