THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

This sounds like a fun project but I only have so much time.  Here are my hitter projections, just finished today, all of these players should be in there.  Hopefully somebody can pick up and tell us how many runs that team will score.

Would help if I give a link.

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2007/11/finally-hitter-projections.html#links

i assume he (the BA author) picked these guys mostly because they had good 2007’s.  Using their 07 MLE’s is going to way overrate their true ability of course.  You have to use projections as Rally is referring to.  My guess is that they are all roughly 20 runs per season below average or roughly a .300 team including pitchers.

The simple average (I know I should weight them by expected PA) of the 14 hitters’ wOBA in Rally’s sheet was: .313.

Presuming a wOBA average of around .338, that makes this team of hitters about 84% runs created, relative to average, which is a .420 winning percentage (presumes average pitching, and that these guys are average fielders).

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When I look at Chone’s list of forecast, focusing on players at least 28 years old who have played very little (or no) MLB, there are plenty of players above the .320 wOBA line.  One can only guess that these players must be really bad fielders.  A guy like Brian Myrow that MGL’s MLEs (from 2002-2004) pegged pretty high, as does Rally today, must be someone like that.

Myrow is not very athletic, which is part of the reason he spent a few years in the independent leagues after his days at Louisiana Tech, so he didn’t start his minor league career until he was 24. Tango’s comment on his defense is accurate.

Rally: great work as usual with the projections. Looking through the list sorted by age, though, it seems that CHONE is particularly harsh toward minor leaguers on the cusp of breaking into the majors, even elite ones like Jay Bruce and Evan Longoria. How much credence do you put into those projections? I seem to recall Nate saying (I might be wrong--if I am please tell me) that PECOTA had overestimated the performances of rookies this season, so perhaps it’s possible that there’s an inherent, systematic advantage to your method. Just curious.

Rally:  I assume that minor lg-to-MLB conversion estimates are based mostly on the experience of younger players who are still improving (and who perhaps have been promoted in part because they are judged to have more upside potential).  When projecting a 28- or 31-year-old minor leaguer, do you think your age adjustments fully correct for that?