THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

And I also said:

Theoretical question: if Ichiro were an infielder, but had Frank Thomas’ legs, would we 100% see him at 3B, or is there a 50/50 chance he might be at 2B?  What if he had Mike Lowell or Justin Morneau legs (below average, but not horrible)?  Any chance he’d be a 2B?

Q2: If Lastings Milledge or Carl Crawford (fast guys, below average, but not terrible arms) were 6’4” RH, would we 100% see him at 2B, or is there even like a 25% chance they might be at 3B?

I think Dave makes a more than fair point that the height-bias is strong enough as to strongly counteract the leg-talent and arm-talent biases. 

I think when looking at the difference in skill set required to be a 2B rather than a 3B, “quick” is more important than “fast”.  I suppose this goes for most infield positions, however how often does a 2B actually get to top speed?  Anyway, while I think that there is not a correlation between height and top-speed, intuitively it seems like there should be a correlation between height and quickness (favoring the shorter player).  This might lend some credence to the short guys moving to second.

Furthermore, I think third base is thought of as a position where the defender takes on step or maybe two, then fields.  In this case, after the final step is made, wouldn’t the taller player have a better “reach”.  Think of it this way: if you have a short player and a tall player who are both going to take a quick step to their left then dive, who would you want?

Right, but that sounds like a “tie-breaker” consideration.  In reality, are you really going to have players that close, that it’ll come down to who is 4 inches taller?

The two questions I posed in post 1 I think would show the extent of the bias.  How much would it matter if Carl Crawford was 6’4” or 5’8”, if everything else about him was unchanged?

Could it be that baseball players that are taller tend to have stronger arms based on the physical traits in common that being tall and throwing harder “may” have?

Perhaps: (and I haven’t looked at this).
Taller => Longer Arms => More torque on ball => Throws harder, or something along those lines??

This is more of a question than a theory.

vr, Xei

Size may not equate to arm strength at age 20+ but it is likely to at ages 10 and 13 when a lot of the decisions about who plays where get made.  Little leaguers who can consistently catch a ground ball and are right handed play the infield.  If you have a strong arm as well you play SS or 3d base.  But a lot of little league 3d baseman who could make a decent throw on a 60 foot diamond couldn’t make the transition to a full size field at age 13 and so 2nd baseman got at that age were smaller and 3d baseman were bigger.  Those players got experience at their respective positions and if they were successful they rarely got switched out.

Longoria, Beltre, Zimmerman, and Rolen were all 3d baseman when they were drafted or signed.  They weren’t switched there by their pro teams.  Usually the position switching that goes on in the minors is because a player can’t handle the demands of his defensive position or occasionaly if he is blocked by better players in the same organization at his primary position.  Of course, as players age and lose mobility because of changes in their physique they are likely to move down the defensive spectrum if they have strong enough batting skills.  The extra height of third baseman is more likely to be an offensive asset than a defensive one.

If teams are being inefficient here, there are some 3B in the minors who could make a successful switch to 2B and thereby get onto the major league team. Or there are some 1B/3B bench guys who could start at 2B.

I’m not saying this is impossible. Dave makes a strong argument. But in order to buy it completely, I’d need to see the names of players in these categories.

Right, why aren’t they doing it?  Teams don’t pay their 2B alot to begin with.  So, they’ve already voted with their wallets that 2B are not that good.

If they have a 3B in the minors who has a decent glove but is being blocked at 3B, why don’t they move him to 2B?

Weird…

I did some work on the subject of what it takes to be a good 2b or 3b (click on my name for the exact article), taking advantage of how my OPA! system is broken down into differing abilities.  The best correlate of GB performance is arm at 2b, ss, and 3b.  The next best correlates were range for third basemen and hands for second basemen.  So, you want the guy who’s not going to boot the ball at second and the guy who has good range at third.  With that said, the effects in terms of difference were not huge.

The thing that came up though was that a well-performing arm at second was uncorrelated with a well-performing arm at third (I was studying utility infielders.) The throw from third is long and requires a strong arm.  The throw from second is shorter, but sometimes requires weird bodily positions from which to make the throw.  Consider that the angle from third is condusive to a right handed thrower setting and throwing.  The angle from second requires turning the body for a right-handed thrower.  So, maybe the guy with the cannon goes to third while the lithe limber (short?) man goes to second.

"If they have a 3B in the minors who has a decent glove but is being blocked at 3B, why don’t they move him to 2B?”

Dodgers are doing just that with Blake Dewitt.

"So, maybe the guy with the cannon goes to third while the lithe limber (short?) man goes to second. “

Yes, we accept that.

The question is why is there such an incredible bias by height?  Even if height correlates somewhat to range and has negative correlation to acceleration/agility, we should still see exceptions.  But, the correlation is much stronger than you’d expect (Usain Bolt is fast, right?… I know, I know...), leading to the likelihood of selection bias on the part of management, or even players themselves ("I’m tall!  I gotta play 3B!").

Neil Walker is 6-3 205. He was drafted out of HS as a C. He is supposed to have a good arm. After 3 seasons behind the plate spent the last 2 at 3b, all of 2008 at AAA. Now, with Andy LaRoche and Pedro Alvarez in front of him, there has been some talk of moving him to 2b (Freddy Sanchez). Walker’s biggest problem is his bat, only projects to a 310-320 wOBA, would be avg at C, below everywhere else.

Height probably is being used as a (somewhat lazy) proxy, although with some basis in fact.  I also found that second base rewards players who have excellent fine motor control skills (think hands-skills, like actually closing the glove on the ball), while third base rewards players with good gross motor skills (think arms and legs-skills, like running and throwing).

People who are taller have more frame on which to put muscle.  That translates into stronger throws.  They also have longer legs.  People who are shorter have less body (and usually less hand) to control, allowing the brain to use its motor cortex more efficiently.  Why do you think ballerinas, gymnasts, and ice skaters are all 4’6”???  It’s not that a tall man can’t have good fine motor control.  It’s just going to be a harder for him.

Secondbasemen also have to turn the double play with their backs facing the runner, avoid the slide, and make a quick exchange from glove to throwing hand. I think this requires a lot of agility that is very biased against size.

Tango, I think you are underestimating how much size affects certain traits, especially at high levels. If Carl Crawford was 6’4” he would be a different player. His power to weight ratio would be lower and his absolute strength would be higher.

re: Gymnast height.  I think it is very important to remember the two main reasons gymnasts are short (and therefore usually extremely young when female).  1) Ratio of upper body strength to overall weight.  and probably just as importantly 2)Being shorter allows for less required angular momentum for spinning lenghtwise (head over feet), allowing them to do flips (especially with legs extended) much more easily.

As for ballerinas, they actually MUST normally be “average” height (between 5’3” and 5’7") for the population, or they will not be eligible for many major companies throughout the world.

Finally figure skaters are seldom shorter than 5’2”.

I don’t believe height is a significant factor for motor control for these athletes.

Found this interesting:
Mike Lowell
Drafted as 2B in ‘95
Minors (pos games):
3B 248
SS 12
1B 4
Majors (pos games):
3B 1363
2B 9

----
Players drafted as 2B ‘87-’99 with 1000 career AB in Majors (per BB-Ref):
‘87 Terry Shumpert
‘88 Jeff Frye
‘89
‘90 Ray Durham, Bret Boone, Fernando Vina, Damon Buford, Kevin Jordan
‘91 Matt Lawton
‘92 Jose Vidro, Frank Catalanotto, Quinton McCracken
‘93 Dave Berg, Frank Menechino, Placido Polanco
‘94 Todd Walker
‘95 Marlon Anderson, Ryan Freel, Aaron Miles, Mike Lowell, Jerry Hairston
‘96 Warren Morris, Junior Spivey, Marcus Giles,
‘97 David Eckstein
‘98
‘99 Coco Crisp, Willie Harris

Players drafted as 2B ‘00-’07 with 400 career AB in Majors:
‘00 Chase Utley, Nate McLouth, Ruben Gotay, Victor Diaz
‘01 Chris Burke, Mike Fontenot, Josh Barfield, Dan Uggla, Scott Hairston, Rajai Davis
‘02 Howie Kendrick, Russell Martin
‘03 Rickie Weeks
‘04 Ben Zobrist

Delwyn Young did not have enough AB.  Interesting how many became outfielders, and center fielders at that.  I was going to do it for 3B and SS, but too slow with cut and paste.

I still think you all are looking at this question in the wrong way.  Here are the average heights and weights of players who debuted after 1980 and played more than 100 games at a position from the Lahman database.

POS---N---WGT---HGT
1B---365--208---74.4
2B---340--176---71.0
3B---333--196---72.9
C----283--196---73.0
CF---142--185---72.9
DH----58--211---73.9
LF---132--200---73.2
OF---649--193---72.8
RF---157--195---73.1
SS---373--177---71.9

The defensive positions that require the most mobility (SS,2B,CF) weigh the least.  The positions that require the least mobility (DH,1B,C,LF, and 3B) weigh the most.  Weight is the enemy of mobility.  Those positions are also the shortest.  For athletes that are physically fit height and weight are pretty closely correlated.  Greater height and weight are also an advantage on offense. 

Third baseman are about average height and weight for position players.  They don’t play third base because they are tall, they play third base because they are decent hitters and can catch ground balls but their height (and weight) put them at a disadvantage for the range necessary to play SS or 2B.  Shorter players play 2B or SS or if they are good at catching ground balls because their lack of height (and weight) puts them at a disadvantage to compete offensively with players at other positions.  Shorter players have fewer options to make it as a major league player.  They must develop defensive skills at the most defensively valuable positions to offset the disadvantage that their size poses in developing offensive value.

Another thing I often hear is that small players do not have the durability to be full time catchers.  Most recently it was said about prospect James Skelton (owner of a .456 OBP last year) who was taken away from the Tigers by the Rangers in the Rule 5 draft. Skelton can catch but there has been concern that he would have to switch to another position due to his size. 

Is it true that big catchers have more durability than small catchers? The explanation I most often get is that catchers lose a lot of weight over the course of a season and big people have more weight to spare than small people. But wouldn’t small people lose the same percentage of weight as big people?  I would think durability has more has more to do with strength than size. 

Another thing about small catchers is that they carry less weight on their knees which I think would make them less susceptible to injury.

Yeah, I think Tom is underrating the extended, quick mobility needed at 2nd base versus the short, reflex based mobility needed at 3rd.  Taller players are at a disadvantage in the movements of playing 2nd since that position needs quick, choppy steps.  Look at a 2nd basemen and the type of steps that are used to range and field, the short steps are especially necessary when getting closer to the ball, taller players would tend to misstep unless they were excellent athletes.  Basically, if you have a tall, athletic enough player to play 2nd, they usually end up playing SS since height will correlate to arm strength in general as well.