THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Pujols had the green light 3-0 there. What’s the opinion on this? I mean, obviously game theory says you should always have the green light, it’s just a question of how good a pitch you need to see to be able to swing at it? Top 10% to hit, top 5%, etc. Actually percentages is probably not right, you probably want a certain speed/pitch/type/zone combination, and it’s obviously much smaller with a count 3-0, also dependant on the base/out state, batter, lineup, pitcher, etc.

So MGL, what do you think about Schumaker starting vs a lefty.

It would be relatively nice if the “FOX Scouting Report” ever contained...you know, scouting information about the pitcher.  “Another Big Game Tonight?” Huh? How is that a “Scouting Report.” Fah.

Are Buck and McCarver even watching the same game as we are?

If Moreland fields that ball cleanly, uh, what do you think happens?

"So MGL, what do you think about Schumaker starting vs a lefty.”

Defense aside, according to my projections versus a lefty pitcher, they both shouldn’t be anywhere near home plate (versus a LHP), but Schumaker is a lot worse - about 16 runs BELOW replacement level.  About like a decent hitting pitcher.

Of course, LaRussa the genius knows that Jay is cold.

As far as swinging at a 3-0 pitch, it is complicated.  The batter has to have power and good strike zone judgment and it has to be a situation where the extra base hit is at a premium as compared to the walk.  And there is the game theory element too.  All of those requirements seem to be satisfied with Pujols.  Bottom line, I have no idea whether and when and how often a batter should take (100%) a 3-0 pitch.

So I think the worst call so far has been the allowance of that terrible Derek Holland interview by the FOX Baseball production manager. Goodness gracious . . .

Based on my reading of pg. 298 in The Book, Wash should not have walked Pujols in the top of the inning.

Eh, the Holland wasn’t bad, more that it was a longish inning and Buck had no idea what to do with him.

I’m also guessing Craig bunting in that inning wasn’t the greatest decision in the world.

lol Buck just called Michael Young one of the worlds best hitters.

Anon/#7

I glossed over the Craig bunt in my previous comment. That was awful, but I half-expected it knowing LaRussa’s style.

Bunt terrible, walk bad BUT probably close to the least terrible you’ll see in an early inning, @Anon/7: It’s all about context. If you think about there being 7 billion people on the planet, and he’s got to be one of the best, what, 100 at worst. You can make a decent argument for top 25. But obviously if you’re just looking at big leaguers, #25 isn’t probably what you’d call one the absolute best.

THIS walk is killing me.

#9, Meant it’s laughable when you are only the 6-10th best hitter on the field the implication that he is some sort of great threat that that statement implies in said situation.

LaRussa did it again! Why would you have Furcal bunt there?

And Wash is walking Albert Pujols again. This time is more defensible, but I still don’t think it’s the best call. Of course, it’s ridiculous that C.J. Wilson is still in the game, too.

Holliday coming up short for the Cards in consecutive AB.

Texas is not justified in using anyone but Feliz or Adams against a RHP here. Leverage is way too high for Feldman.

5 times Pujols has been IBB’d in the playoffs.

All 5 times Holliday has ended the inning with no runs scored.

2 GIDP
2 K
1 FO

I said at FG today that I would bat Berkman between Pujols and Holliday. [1] It gives Holliday a break. He is a little off, and they are challenging him. [2] In later inning it might also force TEX to use a R-L-R relief pattern.

At some point Holliday has to get a hit after an IBB. But, right now he is killing the Cardinals when they walk Pujols.

Article at FG today explaining that carp had been seldomly using his curveball in favor of groundball inducing sinkers and sliders.

I don’t like curveballs against power hitting teams due to the margin of error being so small.

Honestly, in another 20 years the curveball might not be a featured pitch.

More risk than reward, IMO.

What? Carp shook off Molina to throw the curveball to Napoli? Wow. Just wow.

bases empty IBB?

I would have used Darren Oliver to pitch to Berkman rather than walk the bases loaded.

[1] Good for Holliday
[2] How the hell do you pull that pitch for a line drive into LF-CF?

Another IBB.

David Freese needs to be patient, patient, patient. Let him walk a run in. Not always so easy to regain your target after throwing 4 straight slow pitchouts.

Cardinals blowing chance after chance.

Tim Goldstein....Gone....

Maddening game...!

(And thanks for ejecting Goldstein from the stadium.)

Holy Cuss!!!! Yadi laid off of a high heater AND ran out a groundball.

The end is near. The end in near.

Charlie Steiner wearing his tie around his head like Rambo (Oh, you love that commercial too).

Did Furcal fall down or what? How is he out by 15 feet on that?

Circle/25,
I thought the same thing.

Goldstein is a friend of mine, just acting like his usual immature self.

Yeah, Furcal must have taken ground ball base running lessons from Pujols and Molina.  That should have been a very close play.

I SERIOUSLY doubt that anyone has the hit and run sign on a LaRussa team.

And I double seriously doubt that Pujols would call a hit and run.

Then again, that is what McCarver thinks - the guy who said that, “Even if you are absolutely certain that you are going to make it - why run?” With Pujols at bat.  IOW, McCarver would just IBB Pujols in that spot…

This series is an IBB-fest, like most post-season series are…

Murphy shouldn’t have hit there, and Scrabbles shouldn’t be pitching here.

No Motte?  Oh yeah, it’s not a save situation. Sorry…

Tony is closing the barn door.  Where’s the horse?  The horse?????

mgl/30,
But TLR refuses to name Motte the closer . . .

Did TLR seriously just burn a reliever only for an intentional walk?  He couldn’t have just let the next reliever warm up while Scrabble walked the guy?  What’s going on?

I can’t remember whether or not I’ve ever seen someone come in for one batter and intentionally walk that batter. I know it was to buy time for Motte, but that’s still bizarre.

That is true.  And he took him out in the 9th after two base runner, in favor of a lefty.  So he is not being stupid because he is following conventional wisdom. He is just being stupid…

If StL holds the 2-run deficit, Washington will IBB Pujols to bring the tying run to the plate in Holliday.

mgl, you have to be loving this. TLR is gonna take heat for this game if they lose. 2 games ina row where usage of pitchers and decisions have hurt his team.

If I’m TLR, I blame Vernon Wells. *grin*

If you absolutely need to kill time and can’t do so otherwise, couldn’t you have one of your starters come in and throw 4 balls instead of wasting one of your relievers?  I mean it’s just playing catch with the catcher…

Mickey/#38

Even better, trot Scrabbles to another position and have a position player intentionally walk Kinsler. Then you could bring in Motte. Of course, he should have had Motte in the game, or at least up in the bullpen, much earlier.

Mr. Red/#39, I thought about that, but I wasn’t sure whether or not a position player is entitled to the customary warm-up pitches (those would probably kill more time than the 4 balls).

Oh the irony of running into a double play while running to avoid the double play…

Why?

A string of a bunch of cuss words.

Why?

I think that just decreased Pujols’ FA contract by 5 or 6 million!

Running on a 3-2 count absolutely forces the batter to swing more at marginal (in his mind) pitches.  The batter must do that…

Wow, that was a pathetically managed games....

With the H&R on, that’s not a bad pitch for Pujols to swing at ... outside corner (a little more) to hit behind the runner.

Point is H&R s incredibly f’ing dumb. Pujols is the typing run. He laid off a slider before that was tougher than that FB.

Maybe Washington was right ... he can;t match wits with TLR. Geez.

Why are you calling that a hit and run?  It’s just the runner going to stay out of the potential DP on a ground ball.  A H&R requires the batter to swing (unless the ball is in the dirt).

Obviously Pujols should have taken that pitch. It was 3-6 inches outside or so.  We’ll never know how much the running affected Pujols, but as I said, one of the downsides of sending the runner is that the batter is forced to swing at more borderline pitches.  And he might get distracted as well.

I think that was Tony’s punishment for Albert calling the H&R on the previous at bat.

Hit and Run with 1 on and no outs? Never.

With Pujols? Never. Ever.

So it sounds like TLR wanted Motte to be warming up instead of Lynn, but there were communications issues in the bullpen.  Motte was supposed to face Napoli instead of Scrabble.  So TLR gets some credit back as far as strategy, but I’m not sure who or what gets the blame for the communication failures.

And in other news, Vince Coleman has just been run over by a tarp, Don Dinkinger is the 1st Base ump, and Mike Matheny is playing with knives again.

And forget the fact that “Lynn” and “Motte” apparently sound the same and what Pujols did with Craig on base (twice).  I am still trying to figure out why Dotel started the 8th, when he is the Cardinals 4th best right-handed reliever.  Maybe TLRs Game 4 homeboy Mitchel Boggs was unavailable.

Just some angry rambling here…

MGL ...

My thinking in that situation is ...

- We’ve already had one blunder with Craig trying to take second regardless of what play was on.

- You’ve got your best hitter up with a 3-2 count facing a guy that just beaned a batter on a 1-2 count and is a bit erratic.

- DON’T screw with Pujols. Just let him bat. If he hits into a DP, you live with it. Pujols as the tying run at the plate is what you want. It’s possible that seeing the runner take off triggers some instinct to swing and protect the runner at a pitch you normally wouldn’t hack at.

- As a RHB, Pujols has full view of Craig taking off. Feliz is tough enough to hit without the added distraction.

- TLR is almost telling Pujols he expects him to hit a ground ball there, and is playing to avoid two outs. Why?

That play seemed to me, at the very least to be over-managing, at worst managing out of irrational fear.

It’s Pujols, trust him. I think it’s conceivable that without Craig running, Pujols takes that pitch for ball 4 and now you’ve got 2 on no outs, and Holliday, Berkman, Freese coming to the plate with no outs. You’d kill for that opportunity given the results of the previous half inning.

This just screamed to me that TLR couldn’t just let the game happen, and had to meddle thinking he was “making something happen”.

We got a gift when Feliz plunked Craig 1-2. We gave it right back.

Mike Napoli is the God-King.  He won this game by divine right.  I see there is an explanation (excuse?) for letting scrabble face him.  Not good enough.

One out, runner on 2b, you need two outs.  You can either let Dotel pitch to Cruz and scrabble to Murphy, or you force yourself to pitch to the Napoli.  Tony choose poorly.

MGL wrote his bombastic post a few days too early. This game deserves that title.

I imagine MGL reading this, nodding vigorously. At least at the LaRussa-bashing parts (not the glossing over Washington’s lineup choices).

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/10/25/game.5/index.html

MGL/27:

FWIW, Pujols confirms that he put on the first failed hit and run:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111024&content_id=25782738

I’ve been thinking about the game last night, ran some numbers, and I found a surprising result, so I want to check and see what y’all say. In the 9th inning, I think Craig should have tried to straight steal 2nd.

At the start of Pujols’ at bat, with Craig on 1st and no outs, Fangraphs has the Cards WE at 17.2%. I think it’s safe to say that had Craig successfully stolen 2nd, Ron Washington would have intentionally walked Pujols, putting runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs.

I’m also estimating Craig’s true stolen base success rate is a below average 65%, which seems conservative to me but I’m not certain.

So this is what I found:

Failure: 1 out, no runners on leaves the Cards with ~2% WE about 35% of the time.
Success: 0 outs, 1st and 2nd and WE is 26%(?) 65% of the time.

Well (.02 * .35) + (.26 * .65) = 17.6%, which is higher than the original 17.2% Fangraphs said. Depending on what the actual numbers are it might have been very beneficial for the Cards to try and steal.

This analysis really hinges on three factors:
1.  Whether Washington IBB’s Pujols (I think very high).
2. Craig’s SB success rate. Maybe it should be lower, I’m not sure.
3. The Cards WE following success. I couldn’t find WE for 2 run deficits with the correct run environment, so I had to extrapolate based upon other scenarios. This is where I’m really hoping y’all come in with solid numbers.

So what do you think?

Yeah I heard that. That surprised me. I guess that is not as uncommon as I thought.  Did any reporter bother to ask Albert why he didn’t swing at that pitch (a requirement for the H&R)?

As far as Tony’s bullpen choices I still don’t understand his explanation although I have not heard him directly, only the media discussing it.

It may very well have been correct for him to steal. Your analysis is correct although as you said you need to know a more exact WE and you need to know the chances of the IBB. I think that is quite low. If you make the chances of an IBB 50% and also 25% what is the break even point of the steal?

I think that Craig running on the 3-2 count is probably either correct or close to correct.  Someone has to estimate the chances of Albert striking out, the chances of Craig being thrown out, and the chances of a dp if Craig doesn’t run (as well as the chances of a dp with Craig running).

Again I think it will be close either way

All the criticism of that play is results based of course.

You have to do the WE based on Pujols being the batter, not the average batter at the plate.

Wait.  IBBing Pujols would be nuts.  If James re-ran his #s with no IBB likelihood, the play is bound to look bad, isn’t it?  Unless TLR was counting on Wash to co-operate with a bone-headed IBB.  I hate to let TLR off the hook.  Criticizing him is so much fun.....

All the criticism of that play is results based of course.

I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that. I think genius and luck look a lot alike in many situations.

Many are criticizing Napoli in the 7th/8th spot even though that’s working out great for TEX.

I just don’t see the need for the risk in that situation. Your best hitter is up in a situation where the pitcher has to [1] throw him a strike or [2] walk him ... both situations you like.

I don’t like the risk in that situation. If Pujols GIDP’s, I can live with it that we had our best hitter as tying run and it just didn’t work out.

As it is now, you’ve told Pujols you really don’t trust him to not hit into a GIDP, and Craig has made to look like an idiot twice, while the pitching changes are getting screwy.

I would have LOVED to hear what Craig and Jay were wihispering to each other after the 1st failed H&R.

MGL/57:

Did any reporter bother to ask Albert why he didn’t swing at that pitch (a requirement for the H&R)

Albert does not consider it a requirement, apparently.

Pujols said: “It was a 99-mph pitch away that I couldn’t even get my bat on,” he said. “So I let it go.”

(The count was 1-0, btw)

“It was a 99-mph pitch away that I couldn’t even get my bat on,” he said. “So I let it go.”

If only he would have applied that philosophy in the 9th inning.

Not that I’m ridiculing Pujols or anything. Just seems like a weird thing to say given the pitch he chased on 3-2 with Craig running was 6+ inches off the plate in a situation where he did not have to swing to provide the offense with a big plus.

In the first situation, the batter would only be swinging at that pitch to “foul it off” or “get in the catcher’s way a bit”. I agree with Pujols that he probably could not have done much with that pitch, which is why I wouldn’t have him call a hit and run himself ... You’re basically putting yourself in a situation where you either have to swing at a pitch you can;t do much with or have the runner thrown out. In that case the pitch pretty much served as a pitchout since it was up and out.

As far as I know, the batter is supposed to try and get his bat on anything other than a pitch in the dirt in order to prevent the runner from being thrown out, since it is assumed that he is going to get thrown out 50%+ of the time. 

Clearly it depends on the runner, pitcher, and catcher. If you have a runner who is going to be safe 60 or 70% of the time or more, then you don’t have to swing at a bad pitch.

I guess since he called the H&R in the first place, he thinks that he can do whatever he wants (not swing if he doesn’t think he can make contact).

He also said in the interview that he didn’t want to waste a strike.  Well, isn’t that a necessary evil of the hit and run that you have to live with if you think it is the correct play?  If the pitch is bad, you have to be willing to give up a strike or weak contact by swinging at it.

If you are not going to swing at a really bad pitch, other than one in the dirt (the assumption is that the runner is going to be sage a high % of the time), with a marginal runner on first, then I assume that the hit and run is a really bad play and should not be called.

There is something really screwy going on with Albert and TLR.  Seriously.  I think that Albert is learning how to do stupid things, not take responsibility for them, and then dodge the issue from the best in the business!

The problem is that the guy running has speed score of 35 or so and 5 SB/1 CS in 119 ML games and 6/1 in almost three seasons in AA and AAA. To me, that sounds like slow guy who knows he’s slow and knows how to pick his spots. Sending someone like that to steal in forced situation should mean very low success percentage.
From Albert’s comments it seems as if he called run and hit, not hit and run first time.
as for second H&R, or steal, the count was 3-2. If it’s ball, stolen base is irrelevant. If it’s called/swinging strike, stolen base advances runner, but Pujols is out. Foul ball returns everything back. With groundout DP is reduced, but with flyout DP is increased. If it’s non-HR hit, Craig has a chance to take one base more than if he stayed back. The last point would be very significant for 1-run deficit, but Pujols is the tying run, not Craig.
All in all, considering that it’s not Reyes or Ellsbury, but slow runner, there’s no reason to run in front of Pujols, specially twice.

There is something really screwy going on with Albert and TLR.  Seriously.  I think that Albert is learning how to do stupid things, not take responsibility for them, and then dodge the issue from the best in the business!

I agree with this. AP5 will do this type of thing from time to time, where he’ll make a mistake and then not want to talk about it. He did the same thing the night the ball went off his glove on the cutoff for whatever reason allowing Andrus to take 2nd.

I don’t understand Pujols having the freedom to make such a call in such an important circumstance. I understand giving a player the freedom to do something involving themself (steal on their own, etc), but not given control over what another player does.

I wondered if AP5 thought Craig safe at 2b means that AP5 gets IBB and they have runners at 1st and 2nd (not likely, IMO). But, given how unsuccessful StL has been with the IBB to Pujols in th eplayoffs that probably isn’t it it.

My concern is that Pujols thought that having Craig take off meant that AP5 would get a better pitch to hit, and AP5 just wanted a good strike for him, but wasn’t really intending to swing at a bad ball. That’s dangerous thinking. There’s a lot of unflattering words that can replace ‘dangerous’, but I’m not going that far since I am just presenting a concern and am not basing it on evidence or things of that nature.

There have been times when Pujols has been above reproach because no one wants to piss him off and have him sign with another team IMO .. and also, he is a fan favorite for very good reasons.

Ouch, let’s see how much that fielding error hurts the Cards.  That was FUGLY!  Furcal should have stayed out of that play.

As there isn’t a thread for game 6, I’m going to post here.
What is Ron Washington thinking?! Letting Lewis bat in the 5th inning of a 1 run game with the bases loaded and a very deep, well-rested bullpen? I mean, you’re throwing away a huge offensive opportunity to leave a maybe average at this point in a game (who hasn’t even been doing that well tonight)…

LaRussa’s reliance on scrubs like Lance Lynn and Mitchell Boggs in high leverage situations is a big reason why the Cardinals are in trouble here. Both pitchers project as below average relievers.

Sorry for not thinking of a game 6 thread.  I was watching the game, and even reeled in my wife for a couple of innings late.

I’ll have one up for tomorrow for whoever wants to join in.