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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, April 02, 2010

College performance against future pros

By Tangotiger, 10:13 AM

Perfect timing from Sackmann:

For the most part, that .269/.337/.391 line generally reflects how good college hitters do against pro-ready pitching. ...
When we see that Tony Sanchez, author of an OPS better than 1.000 for Boston College last season, managed only a .246/.290/.404 line in 60 PAs against drafted pitchers, we can see intuitively that that’s not very good. Knowing that it should be compared to that .269/.337/.391 average doesn’t make it look a lot better, but it gives us a key reference point.

This isn’t to say that Sanchez was a good or bad draft choice, though it does suggest he’ll have a harder time against pro pitching than, say, Grant Green, who posted a .354/.434/.600 mark against draftees, a slightly better OPS than he did against non-draftees. Sure enough, Green did much better in high-A ball last summer than Sanchez did.

In terms of weighting, I would at least give a “1” for each PA against future-pros, and at most a “0.5” weight for each PA otherwise, if not much less.  This is just yet another thing to study.

(19) Comments • 2010/04/05 • SabermetricsMinors_College
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April 02, 2010
College performance against future pros