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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Cliff Lee’s historic K/BB pace
Finally, Eric does the work I’ve been talking about for months, year, heck decades:
While it is sexy to suggest that Lee could finish the season with the highest single-season K/BB ratio in the modern era, a more appropriate line of inquiry would compare his current rate to that of pitchers in the past through a similar span, be that innings pitched or date. For instance, how does Lee’s 15.17 K/BB through 112 2/3 innings compare to other pitchers in the past through their first 110-115 innings? An analysis like that would provide some telling information as far as whether or not any pitchers even fit this description and, if so, how they fared over the remainder of the season. That way, if nobody surfaces with a K/BB as high at that point in their season, we can more effectively conclude that Lee is on an historic pace. To that end…
And the next best is David Wells’s 2003 (58/4). But, damn, Curt Schilling’s 150/11 in 2002 is mighty impressive.
And then Eric does something beautiful: he gives us the K/BB numbers of the top 10 pitchers AFTER the 112 IP point. This can effectively be considered what we’d expect from Cliff Lee.
The average in the second half was 6.23, down from the 9.04 in the first half but still more than respectable.
I don’t know how Eric calculated the average of ratios. It’s not really straightforward in any case. What you have to do is figure out the K and BB per IP of each pitcher. Average those numbers separately. And THEN take the ratio. Another way to do it is to do K / (K+BB) of each pitcher, take the average of that. And then do x/(1-x) to get your ratio. Those of you who are familiar with my take on rates v ratios know where I’m coming from. For the newbies: you’ve got something new to think about.
Anyway, ALL “on pace” articles need to be done this way. The next time someone says someone is on pace to get 200 RBI or 80 HR or 30 W, send them to Eric article.
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