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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Chris Carpenter: money on the table?

By Tangotiger, 02:34 PM

When I saw the deal, it was interesting.  You have someone who at age 34 was one of the best pitchers, if not the best.  At ages 35-36, he was above average.

How much do you pay this pitcher for ages 37 and 38?  Pavano, a bit younger and somewhat worse signed for 2/16.5.  Pineiro close to that.  Pettitte, a bit older, a bit worse, signed for 1/12.

So, thinking about this for the first time, I’d say a one-year deal would probably be 1/14 or so.  A second year probably worth 11 maybe?  So, 2/25 would have been my quick take without doing any kind of analysis.  He signed 2/21, and Eno is arguing he might have left 10MM on the table.  That’s possible.  Maybe a 16MM the first year and 14MM the second year?  Sure, possible.

I agree that he left something on the table.

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September 13, 2011
Chris Carpenter: money on the table?