from Amazon
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
CHONE team forecasts
Courtesy of Rally.
It seems to me that he’s VERY conservative on the fielding. I’ll take the over on the +28 for fielding for Mariners, for example. I’d think anywhere from +50 to +110 is about right.
The standard deviation for offense, fielding, and pitching is: 49, 15, 28. In fact, the sum of the squares for fiielding and pitching should match the square of hitting (i.e., variances should add up). And, they don’t here. The spread in fielding talent should be almost double what he’s showing. And the spread in pitching talent should be about 40% more. Now, Rally could say that there is so much more uncertainty in fielding and pitching than hitting that that’s why it looks like that. If so, then his forecast will undervalue a team you really think is pitching+fielding heavy… hence, why I and other would think his Mariners forecast is way too low.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date