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Saturday, November 21, 2009
Chastising Tango
Finally, Bradbury mentions an article at The Book Blog that completely abuses a model developed by John Hakes and Skip Sauer. I had in fact read the article by Tango and was appalled at the misuse of the model myself. I began writing a response explaining the difficulty with extrapolating a regression outside of a sample, but decided it would simply fall upon deaf ears. At this point, I just don’t bother. It seems that others that do not look upon Tango as some sort of cult leader have given up as well.
It’s interesting how JC (and Millsy it seems) and Sauer and Hakes have never actually challenged a single one of my findings.
And while I (repeatedly) go out of my way to show that I use the examples I do to test the limits of the model, I don’t use those out-of-sample data points to claim that the model itself is broken. It’s just that in order to find the equivalency between two groups of players, I simply cannot do it with “normal” types of players. I should be able to, but I cannot. Basically, the model itself is not able to fit the data points of normal-extreme players, forget about the really-extreme players.
Nothing I have said has been specifically challenged, and yet all I get are summary opinions from JC, Millsy and the authors about how things work or they are more complicated.
I listen. I respond.
It’s the others who don’t.
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