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Friday, August 07, 2009
Change in true talent level, by score
Pizza shows us what happens when you look at the Odds Ratio Method (using the observed seasonal OBP for the batter and pitcher) when the score is not tied:
What’s the value of the batter’s team winning vs. the batter’s team losing? Let’s say a league average batter faces a league average pitcher (an OBP of .339, including ROE). The generated equation says that if the batter’s team is winning, the expected OBP for that situation is .341. If the batter’s team is losing, it’s .334. That’s a 7-point swing, based entirely on what’s on the scoreboard. Seven points is not huge, but it’s not exactly trivial either.
This was based on 78,000 PA. One SD is 1.7 OBP points, so the 7 point swing is 4 SD away. That’s not to say that the 7 point difference itself is real, but at the very least a non-zero difference is almost certainly true.
I love the study, and look forward to seeing this historically!
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