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Thursday, March 31, 2011
Change in fastball speed by count
Lucas shows that the count affects the speed.... maybe. It’s unclear if he guaranteed that each of the 12 pools was made up of identical pitchers in identical quantities.
This is a little lesson for your aspiring quants out there. You have three choices:
1. Take the simple average (each pitcher counts the same within each pool; same pitchers used in all pools)
2. Take the weighted average (each pitcher counts differently within a pool; however, that proportion is kept constant across pools)
3. Lump (just add up everything, paying no nevermind to how often a pitcher occurs in any pool)
Never, ever, ever do #3.
An example of #2 is that you would count Roy Halladay alot more than Stephen Strasburg in each pool, and that proportion is kept constant in each pool.
In #1, Doc and Strasburg count the same, and they both appear in all the pools.
Usually, #2 is preferred. But sometimes #1 will work, if you set the opportunities threshold high enough.
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