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Friday, August 12, 2011
Chance after chance after chance
These are all the pitchers born since 1952 (i.e., after Blyleven), with at least 60 starts, through age 27. They are ordered by ERA+ from worst to… uh, not-worst. The general rule is that if you’ve been given 60 starts, you are not going to get many more. The more non-worst you are, the more chances you are given. That’s why you see near the non-worst point, guys with over 100 starts. Kyle Davies stands out as someone who has been given an enormous number of starts at such a poor performance level. You’ll also note that a good portion of the players were given a fair number of games in the bullpen. Basically: it’s not working out here, let’s try you over there. Kyle Davies stands out as someone who was kept in the starting rotation. At some point, scouting has to give in to empirical data: as much as a scout may say that Kyle Davies is a decent pitcher, we have to accept that maybe he’s not that good.
Of course, right behind Davies is Mike Scott. You kids may not remember him, but he was one of the best pitchers of his era (at some point in his career).
Let’s look at the top 10 in this list, and see what they did in the 4 years after their age 27 season. How much hope can we possibly give the Kyle Davies of the world? (I had to exclude pitchers who are still to young, so I went down to the #15 on the list below to get my top 10.)
Here we go:
Van Poppel: 282 IP, 108 ERA+ (almost all in relief)
Bowen: out of MLB
Mike Scott: 796 IP, 106 ERA+ (almost all as starter), and then continued on for a few more excellent seasons)
Knapp: out of MLB
Snyder: out of MLB
Scudder: out of MLB
Walk: 530 IP, 115 ERA+ (half games as starter), and continued his career beyond
Rupe: 10 more innings then out of MLB
Wright: out of MLB
Codiroli (*): 122 IP, 75 ERA+
(*) I followed MLB intently when I was a kid, knowing every player on every team (easier done when you collect baseball cards, and are in fantasy leagues). I do not remember this guy at all.
So, that’s what you have here: 20% chance of good success, 10% chance of being useful as back of the bullpen guy, and 70% chance of being out of MLB.
Note: replacement level is ERA+ of 75-80 as a starter, and 95 as a reliever.
Glove-slap: Eric.
Source Baseball-Reference.com:
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