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Monday, August 31, 2009
ceteris paribus
Always, always, always make sure that if you compare two groups where everything is the same except the one thing you are studying, then make sure everything else is the same. That is “all other things equal”.
Tim Kniker finds that catchers’ batting average jumps to .300 the 5th and later times a catcher comes up to bat (in 2008). First, I’d like to know how many times that could have happened. And secondly, I would presume that Joe Mauer and his ilk are more likely to be allowed to come up to bat 5 times than a defensive catcher who was pinch hit earlier in the game and therefore is no longer even in the pool of catchers with at least 5 PA.
I also have a hard time believing that every position bats over .300. Is it possible that there’s a ton of sac flies here or something else going on?
That said, I love the thesis question posed. I think Dave Smith had a similar study on Retrosheet, and I’m not sure if he broke it down by position or not. I know I did it in The Book, but again, I did not break it down by position. Pizza Cutter as well.
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