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Wednesday, November 23, 2011
CBA: How much signing bonus pool should each team be allocated?
Jeff Passan is reporting:
The draft pools start this season with the Houston Astros – who pick No. 1 overall – set to receive $11.5 million to spend in the first 10 rounds. They end with the New York Yankees having a $4.5 million budget over 10 rounds
Does it make sense?
Check out the WAR for players (through age 29) drafted in the June draft, for 1965-1999, for the top 300 picks, grouped by “order”, where order=1 is the 1st, 31st, 61st, etc picks:
WAR order
100% 1
72% 2
64% 3
59% 4
67% 5
60% 6
64% 7
48% 8
74% 9
70% 10
38% 11
47% 12
54% 13
44% 14
32% 15
69% 16
46% 17
40% 18
69% 19
62% 20
23% 21
46% 22
44% 23
38% 24
56% 25
46% 26
32% 27
37% 28
45% 29
56% 30
I indexed it relative to order=1. As you can see, if you are slotted to pick 2nd through around 10th, you get 64% of the value of picking 1st (with not much difference between picking 2nd through 10th). Picking 11th through 30th gets you 46% of picking 1st.
MLB is giving the first team to pick 11.5MM$ to play with, while the 30th place team is getting 4.5MM$ (or 39% of the first team). That seems pretty reasonable.
Presumably MLB has a sliding scale for each spot. In my case, I have spots 11 through 30 to be at 46%. Presumably, MLB has those spots at something like 53% down to 39% (so that they too will come out to average my 46%).
Using the above data, this is my recommended pool money for each slot (note that things get a bit complicated with the extra lottery picks that I have not modeled here; but, someone can take my above chart, and work it out):
WAR Tango pick
100% 100% 1
72% 72% 2
64% 70% 3
59% 68% 4
67% 66% 5
60% 64% 6
64% 62% 7
48% 60% 8
74% 58% 9
70% 57% 10
38% 56% 11
47% 55% 12
54% 54% 13
44% 53% 14
32% 52% 15
69% 51% 16
46% 50% 17
40% 49% 18
69% 48% 19
62% 47% 20
23% 46% 21
46% 45% 22
44% 44% 23
38% 43% 24
56% 42% 25
46% 41% 26
32% 40% 27
37% 39% 28
45% 38% 29
56% 37% 30
If MLB ends up having a scale anything close to what I’m proposing, then hats off to whoever at MLB worked it out. You did a great job!
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