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Friday, June 10, 2011
Catcher Framing Skill
Fantastic article by Max:
Let’s do some back-of-the-envelope calculations. A top catcher at framing pitches, such as Russell Martin, improves the chances of a borderline pitch to be called a strike of roughly 20 percent. Since the difference in run value between a ball and a strike has been estimated around 0.13 runs (see the References and Resources section at the end), a skilled catcher might be worth 0.026 runs on a single borderline pitch.
In the data used for this analysis, each game contributes on average four pitches. That is, there are four borderline pitches per game on the outside corner. Let’s conservatively guesstimate a total of eight when we add the inside part and the upper and lower border of the strike zone. Then divide by two, to apportion the borderline pitches between the two teams playing the game. That makes four uncertain pitches a game where the catcher can make the difference.
Martin caught 97 games in 2010. Multiply that by four pitches and by 0.026 runs and you get 10 runs in a limited number of games.
According to this analysis the top catchers can win a ballgame per season (even playing fewer than 100 games) only with the skill of framing pitches.If you think that’s a lot, I’m with you.
Great stuff all-around.
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