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Monday, May 10, 2010
Carlos Zambrano
The replacement-level pitcher will give up 5 runs per 9 IP in relief and 6 runs as a starter (presuming league average of 4.70). Let’s say a pitcher, expected to excel as a reliever, gives up 2.5 runs per game. That is a very high expectation, seeing that the ageless and incomparable Mariano Rivera has given up 2.23 runs per 9IP in relief. With a closer LI of 1.90, we chain that to give a top reliever an LI of 1.45. So, the calculation goes like this: a great ace reliever is +2.5 runs per 9IP, and we give him 75 IP, so he’s +20.8 runs above replacement, (5.0-2.5)/9*75, which normally translates to +2.08 wins. But, with a 1.45 chained-LI, that makes him +3.0 WAR. That’s basically the best a reliever can be expected to deliver.
If you have a pitcher that can deliver more than 3 WAR as a starter, you make a him a starter for sure. Anything less, and you have to look into it. If a pitcher can put up results at least as good as this, you make him a starter:
--- Starter ---
WAR RPG IP
3.00 3.00 90
3.00 3.50 108
3.00 4.00 135
3.00 4.50 180 <--
3.00 5.00 270
3.00 5.50 540
As you can see, the tipping point is right around giving up 4.50 runs per game (runs, not earned runs) at 30 starts. If you have a pitcher that you don’t think can be as good as that as a starter AND you expect him to be FANTASTIC as a reliever, you make him your closer. Joba Chamberlain seems to be that kind of pitcher, based on the expectation of the Yankees.
Is Zambrano like that (this year anyway)? I don’t know. But, that’s what you have to decide.
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