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Tuesday, May 03, 2011
Canadian elections
This blog, styled-after Nate’s site, forecasted 36% of the votes for the Conservatives and keeping and staying at 143 of the 308 seats. It also expected a surge in a perennial 3rd place party to get to 27% votes and 78 seats. (With the Quebec-based party being decimated by losing 20 seats, 47 down to 27.)
Nate for his part said that:
As these scenarios indicate, the range of possible outcomes remains very broad, with my suggested scenario projecting 60 to 64 seats for the NDP — an important improvement for the party, but still likely to leave them the third largest party in the House of Commons rather than second.
And what happened?
1. The Conservatives got 167 ridings of 308, and a majority!
2. The NDP did indeed jump to 2nd place, but to an astounding 102 ridings far more than either of the above two forecasts.
3. The Bloc Quebecois got decimated down to just 4 ridings and lost “official party status”. (Nate said something about them being “disqualified” as if it means something important. It means they lose some level of funding and speaking out in parliament. His blog post made it seem ambiguous.)
If someone thought they can forecast Canadian elections, well, you’ve just been Jose Bautista-ed.
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