from Amazon
Monday, September 12, 2011
Cain v Shields, part 2
In the off-season, I noted the similarity and differences of Cain and Shields. They both had a similar FIP entering 2011, but Cain had a much better BABIP, and sequenced his events better, hence Cain allowed runs at a much lower rate than Shields.
This is why god invented the bet. If you really believed that there is in essence no difference in overall talent between Shields and Cain, then you should be taking bets to that effect, that Cain and Shields are expected to be on the mound a similar number of times when runs are scored. But, if you believe that Cain is in fact more talented in getting positive outcomes when the ball is in play, and/or Cain is in fact more talented in stringing events to minimize their impact to run scoring, then you should be taking bets to that effect.
So, how’s 2011 been treating them? They’ve both faced a similar number of batters (825 for Cain, 850 for Shields). Both have the same number of walks (excluding IBB, including HBP: one has 57, the other has 58). Cain has 41 fewer K, but he also has 13 fewer HR. The result is that Cain has a much lower FIP.
As for Cain’s BABIP: he continues to maintain his very low BABIP, as he’s at .260 (compared to his career .265). Shields however matches him at .261 (compared to career .300).
However, the real test in all these things is runs allowed. Remember: betting on FIP entering 2011 meant that you’d bet them to be about equals. Betting on also including BABIP and sequencing would mean that you’d bet on Cain. So, how did the test go? How many runs have they allowed?
Shields has allowed 72 runs, while Cain has allowed 73.
So, in a weird way, betting on FIP was right. Except of course that the individual components to those runs allowed is not what we were trying to sell. We thought Cain’s BABIP would increase, except Cain maintained his superlow level, and Shields met him there. We thought their FIP would remain the same, but Cain crushed him by simply not allowing HR.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date