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Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Bunting in a high-run, and poor-fielding, environment
In MLB, bunting makes more sense when the run environment is low, say close to 4 runs per game. But in college, when run scoring is very high, why bother bunting, beyond the “keeping them honest” aspect? Well, Jeff gives us good data (ESPN):
Last season, in over 3,000 sacrifice situations (runner on first and/or second with fewer than two outs), the bunter and all baserunners were safe over 17 percent of the time. An error was committed more than five percent of the time. Double plays? Less than one percent.
Let’s say that means 22% of the time, it’s like an infield hit, 1% of the time, it’s a DP. Jeff doesn’t report the other numbers, but let’s say 50% of the time, it’s a ground out with runners advancing, and 27% it’s a fielder’s choice (runner out, batter gets on).
Breaking out our trusty RE24 chart (WE would be better, but let’s take it simple):
- 5% of the time, you add +.9 runs (I put runners on the corners)
- 17% you add +.6 runs
- 50% you get -.2 runs
- 27% you get -.4 runs
- 1% you get -.8 runs
Adding it up, and we have -.07 runs. That’s with an average hitter in a 5 runs per game environment. That seems like the kind of numbers you’d get with MLB outcomes too. I don’t buy that you should bunt MORE in college because of the poor fielders (they are also poor fielders when they get the ball on the ground on swinging away, no?).
But, at least it seems defensible in certain situations, and is not the crazy idea I initially thought.
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