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Friday, December 16, 2011
Bunting for a hit
Dewan has some data for us.
Batting Average by Zone, 2011
Non-Sacrifice Situations
Zone 1 .246
Zone 2 .412
Zone 3 .164
Zone 4 .139
Zone 5 .520
Zone 6 .720
Overall .438
So, a .438 batting average if bunting for a hit, with no one on base, or runners on base and two outs. What’s the breakeven point?
Well, a single with no one on adds around +.25 runs, while an out costs .16 runs. That gives us a break-even point of .390. That is, if you bunt for a hit with no one on base, and you have a .390 batting average, you are a league-average hitter.
Players are bunting for a .438 average, which means they are picking their spots pretty well, bunting when they think they have a .375 to .500 batting average.
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Note that with a runner on base and 2 outs, the batting average breakeven point shoots way up. Here are some numbers (all with 2 outs):
runner on 1B: .500
runner on 2B: .670
runner 1B/2B: .580
As you can see, only the absolute very best bunters should EVER bunt with runners on base and two outs. Either that, or the fielders have to be playing very deep.
So, I’d like to see those numbers, of bunt batting average with no runners on base, and with runners on base and 2 outs. We should see that .438 be pretty different, something like .420 with bases empty and at least .500 with runners on base.
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