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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, May 06, 2010

Bullpen Shutdowns and Meltdowns (S&M)

By Tangotiger, 12:33 PM

Royals and Phillies.  Thank Crashburn for the S&M reference.

I think we just have to cement our threshhold level, and maybe Fangraphs and B-R.com can include it on their site.  Top of 8th, home team up by 3, has a .923.  So, pitching 2 innings and winning the game while your team doesn’t score, seems like it should definitely be a shutdown.  That +.077.  Top of 9th, up by 3, and it’s +.037.  Bottom of 9th, up by 3 gives you +.047. 

So, that’s why I selected .05 as the threshhold, just enough to give me anything better than the 1-inning 3-run lead.  Maybe it should be .06 or .07.  I don’t think it should be higher than .08.  So, just a matter of seeing what other results were between .05 and .07 and see what might get excluded if you raise the threshhold.

(39) Comments • 2010/05/10 • SabermetricsPitchers
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May 06, 2010
Bullpen Shutdowns and Meltdowns (S&M)