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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, September 04, 2009

Break v Movement

By Tangotiger, 01:29 PM

Dave Allen looks at the difference.  I’m not surprised by his conclusion:

As you can see if you could choose just one piece of information, the break or the movement, of a curve in order to predict its success you would definitely choose movement. The error bars are smaller and non-overlapping.

Movement refers to the spin that the pitcher puts on the ball.  Break is impacted by movement, plus the speed of the pitch thrown.  Movement is what the pitcher does, and break is what you see.  If Dave, for example, would only show all the curveballs of the same speed (say only shows curveballs 74-76 MPH), then I would presume that movement and break will tell you exactly the same thing.

(1) Comments • 2009/09/04 • SabermetricsBall_Tracking
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September 04, 2009
Break v Movement