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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, April 19, 2010

Break between innings

By Tangotiger, 09:31 AM

I said:

As for speed of play, I would bet that it’s the between-inning time. ... I’m going to guess that there’s an extra minute between each half-inning (17 minutes) that can be chopped off by having 17 fewer minutes of commercials.  But, the owners and players are NOT going to bring that up.  Oh no.  They want to reduce the actual playing time, but not the commercial time!

Ensberg concurs:

Oh… and maybe the fact that umpires have to stand and wait with players to start our slow play from the commercial break.  Maybe there’s a slight issue with the fact that all that waiting helps to cause the flow of the game to come to a screeching halt!  But hey, we gotta get paid!

Right.  Let’s try to figure out some numbers.  Let’s say that there’s 40 minutes of commercial time each game, and we should cut that down to 24 (a drop of 40%).  And let’s say that half of MLB’s revenue stream comes from those commercial breaks (TV contracts will shrink, less people will get out of their seats at the stadium to buy food, so there’s more concession guys needed to work the seats during the game, etc).  MLB’s revenue stream is 6 billion dollars, of which we said half of it is tied to the commercial time.  If we chop off 40% of the 3 billion dollars in play, that’s 1.2 billion dollars… gone… vanished.  Half that was allocated for player salaries, so, 600MM$ also gone, just like that.  Players get 3 billion dollars in salaries, so that’s 20% of their salaries gone.... just like that.

So, what MLB and MLBPA are saying is: we can’t cut the dead time while we are not on the baseball field… we need that money, because TV networks are giving it to us, and you saps at home keep watching the games, no matter how many commercials we put in there.  What do you think we players and owners are doing during those breaks?  Yes, we are counting your money!  You are giving it to us.  And then complaining about it giving it to us.  Keep complaining.

Fans act like owners from the 1990s, giving money out to players like they were forced to, and then complaining about it afterwards.  Unless and until fans have a voice at the table (or FCC ensures a maximum number of commercial time for sporting events), their only voice is their wallets.

That MLB is wildly successful means that this is working, either in spite of, or perhaps because of.  Who are we to tell Vladimir Guerrero how to hit, and how MLB should run its business?

***

UPDATE: I’m repeating myself.  This thread, and my comments in that thread, are better than what I said here.

(8) Comments • 2010/04/20 • SabermetricsMLB_Management
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April 19, 2010
Break between innings