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Friday, December 10, 2010
Braves stats and scouts
I quite enjoyed this interview:
I think that we use stats as much, if not more, than any team in baseball. We just don’t brag about it really. We’ve come up with our own stats, where we’ve ranked offense and pitching, and we’ve used those stats in conjunction with what our scouts think in order to look at big-league free agents, six-year free agents, and guys that we might be getting in trades. It’s something we don’t talk about much, but our stats are very advanced. If other teams feel like we don’t have that, that’s fine if they want to think less of us in any way. Underestimate us, that’s fine. We feel really good about the work we do on each player and the systems that we’ve created.
Also, interesting about the use of fielding stats:
I still think the best way to evaluate defense is through the eyes of a scout. I say that because a scout can see where the defender starts, where he finishes, what kind of break he gets, and what sort of closing speed he has. When we look at the stats, like UZR/150 or other zone ratings, or Bill James’ +/-, there’s about seven or eight different stats that all offer something. It’s about trying to find some kind of blend, some merge that you can feel good about. If you can match that up with what your scouts think, and all of that kind of gels, then you’re onto something. If it’s all jumbled up, then, probably, at least for the Braves, we are going to go with our scouts.
Basically, if the scouts have someone as (an implicit) +10 run fielder +/- 8 runs, and the stats agree, they would think of him as +12, +/- 2 runs. If the stats don’t agree, maybe they just discard the stats, or maybe it brings that guy down to +8 runs +/- 7 runs. This is how I interpret his answer, if I try to quantify it. Basically, they’re more interested in reducing the uncertainty level than in getting a better mean estimate.
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