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Thursday, September 24, 2009
Brad Lidge
Dave Allen contends batters are still chasing his pitches outside the strike zone and swinging/missing at those in the strike zone.
I have a side question for Dave. There’s a cluster of pitches where the fastball and slider overlap on both the horizontal and vertical movement. Now, I presume that one of the determining parameters in your algorithm is the velocity (an average of 8 mph difference in Lidge pitches… on average of course). So, a pitch that “rises” 5 inches but is otherwise straight would be a fastball if it’s thrown at 90+ and a slider at 89- (or something like that)?
I was thinking that perhaps some of those might be “missed” pitches. For example, let’s say that you take all the fastballs that you have a low reliability on for Lidge (say 10% of his fastballs). What is the Run value of those pitches compared to the rest of his fastballs? How about for his sliders? If there is a bias in this regard, then either (some of) the pitches have been misclassified, or they were properly classified, but can be considered “mistake” pitches: they either didn’t have the bite or speed expected (by the batter).
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