THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Sunday, October 11, 2009

Bob Brenley seems like a pretty smart guy and is a pretty good TV analyst (in my opinion), but…

I don’t know his reputation as a manager, but if you listen to him on TV, you have to think that he was one of the more thoughtful and intelligent managers.  Yet you wonder why I think that managers in general are woefully incompetent even on the most basic stuff?  To wit:

The other day in the Dodger game I think, a lefty pitcher (maybe Reyes) was pitching to Thome.  The first pitch was a slider or curve ball.  Brenley said something you hear all the time. He said, and I quote, “I would be surprised if he threw him anything but sliders in this AB.” The next pitch was a fastball and Brenley said, “Well, I guess I was wrong.”

The point isn’t whether Brenley was right or wrong.  The point is that Brenley is an ex-manager, probably no different from most managers, and he apparently has no concept of the idea that an effective pitcher must mix up and randomize his pitches.  Does he teach his pitchers to make sure that in certain situations to throw nothing but pitch X in an AB?  Would he tell Thome if he were his manager, “Hey make sure you expect nothing but off-speed pitches in this AB.”

Today, Belliard took off on a hit and run.  Dick Stockton remarked that he didn’t have a good jump.  Brenley want on about the fact that on a hit and run, you don’t need and don’t usually get a good jump or at least as good a jump as when you are stealing, because the batter is going to protect you by swinging at the pitch.  Is that what he teaches his players?  “Hey, don’t worry about the jump you get on a hit and run.” That’s horse***t!  Sometimes the batter swings and misses and sometimes he misses the sign.  On a hit and run, you want to get as good a jump and run as hard as you would on a steal.  When you see runners who do not do that on a hit and run, they are either lazy or poorly coached.  The ONLY difference between a hit and run and steal is that you have to make sure you don’t get picked off on a hit and run.  Yes, that requires an ever so slightly less lead and jump - almost imperceptible.  How often does a runner attempting to steal get picked off anyway?  I’m talking about with a RH pitcher on the mound of course.  Almost never.  Nothing pisses me off more than a base runner getting a lazy jump and a lazy lead on a hit and run. Apparently Brenley promotes that kind of mindset among his players.

Finally, there was yet another hit and run attempt with a runner on first, no outs, and the pitcher on deck.  Never mind the fact that Brenley said, “The reason the hit and run is a good play in this situation is that if it works, it leaves you with runners on first and third and no outs.” (Really?  So that’s why it’s a good play!) He said if it works, the pitcher can now sacrifice the runner on first, do a safety squeeze, or a suicide squeeze.  Never mind how he never mentioned the thing that is correct which most managers apparently are unaware, which is to let the pitcher hit away.  And never mind that a safety squeeze is almost never used in MLB anymore (I don’t know why).  But…

Is he aware that you NEVER (ever) do a suicide squeeze with no outs?  And with a pitcher hitting (more likely to miss the bunt)?  I wouldn’t pay this guy 10 bucks a year to manage my team, which actually makes little sense, because I honestly think that he is probably smarter than most managers…