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Friday, March 28, 2008
Blackjack
Phil looks at James’ targetting (subscription required) phenomena. What he noticed was not so much the “getting to 20”, but rather the letdown in going for 21. And not by the pitcher, but by the team. Fascinating, and points to the genius of Bill James: (a) Have a cool idea, (b) write extremely well about it, (c) come up with some reasonable numbers, (d) leave an honest mess, and (e) end up having a really smart guy like Phil Birnbaum to tidy it up with great analysis, for free.
By the way, Jeff Ma of ProTrade fame, had his story told in Bring Down The House a few years ago, and was fictionalized in the new movie 21, starring Kevin Spacey:
In an recent interview, BDTH writer Ben Mezrich said Jeff Ma and one of the movie producers were playing Blackjack at a Las Vegas casino “The Playboy Club”, and after a few rounds of hands 3 big security guards told Jeff he couldn’t play there. Ma was using his real name and casino security said when they typed his name into their computer “bells and whistlers practically started flashing in the security room”.
Lots of great stuff in that link.
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