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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, April 02, 2009

Bill James Q&A

By Tangotiger, 02:27 PM

Neyer linked to this James Q&A.  Not much there, but always fun to hear from him:

TD: You’ve written that players with many skills tend to age better than more one-dimensional performers; does that augur well for Markakis?  BJ: Well, it seems too early in his career to talk about Markakis aging. Don’t we have to wait until we’re sure he’s at his peak before we start talking about aging?

The questioner’s question was based on something James said at BeJolly about how Bonds would have a more severe aging pattern because all he had left at the end was his bat.  This doesn’t sound right at all.  You can make the opposite argument that if you have one thing to focus on that you’ll be great at it.  Did Edgar, Frank Thomas, Harold Baines, etc age poorly?  Is someone who lives and dies on his fastball in his early 30s going to die quicker than an equally effective pitcher at the same age with more pitch selection?  The answers don’t seem obvious to me.

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April 02, 2009
Bill James Q&A