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Monday, February 08, 2010
Bill James being Bill James
The kind of reasearch I love:
Anyway, I was wondering: does a low walk rate predict a failure to develop as a hitter? Because I can see it either way. I can see that a low walk rate for a young player could be an impediment to development, but I can also see how a low walk rate might be predictive of development, in this way: that the hitter who walks more, as a young player, can be seen as a more finished product, and therefore as a player who has less room to develop. There’s an extra door open for the undeveloped hitter.
My thoughts exactly. I was thinking Frank Thomas, who was such a polished hitter at such a young age, and I knew that walk rates for players generally increase all the way until their late 30s, that I figure that polished hitters simply are wise early, and don’t need to make the mistakes that others do to learn to take a walk early. At the same time, maybe they are so smart that they will draw a walk when they realize they can’t reach that outside pitch in their late 30s.
Bill then does his magic (behind the pay wall). And ends with:
Essentially, there is no reason to believe that the walk rate plays any predictable role in the future development of a young player.
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