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Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Bill James and massive expansion
Bill said (and has said often in the past):
If we went from 30 teams to a mere 300, on the other hand, carefully managing the expansion, it would make no difference whatsoever in the quality of talent. That’s my view.
We can approximate this easily enough. Doing a back of the envelope calculation, the 750 best players would be at 4.30 standard deviations or better. In order to get 10 times that number, the standard deviation would be at 3.80. Creating a simple enough model, the talent level of the next best 6750 players is roughly two-thirds of the top 750.
Roughly speaking, the gap in talent level between the 75 best MLB players, and the next 675 best is roughly the same as the gap in talent between the top 750 and the next best 6750. So, expanding from 3 teams to 30 would have the same effect in terms of noticeable change in talent as would expanding from 30 to 300.
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