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Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Biggest surprise teams of 2007-2008
King Yao gave me his Odds data. It shows the odds for each team of winning, which basically “should” represent the true talent level for the teams, but actually happens to represent that plus whatever bias there is in the betting. Anyway, here is how each team did. The first line read: The Padres (of the games I have, which is virtually all of them) won 152 games, while the betting line expected 163.6 wins. That’s 11.6 less actual wins than expected. At the other end are the Angels who won 13 more games than expected.
Ideally, the Vegas odds are a better forecast for the actual performance in 2009, than the performance of 2007-2008. That is, the Vegas odds have less noise in them that their actual past team performance. Somebody want to check?
diff_wins w tot_line_ct franch_id
11.6 152 163.6 SDG
11.5 154 165.5 ATL
9.3 144 153.3 CIN
8.5 132 140.5 PIT
8.3 142 150.3 SFO
7.8 136 143.8 BAL
6.9 163 169.9 DET
6.7 181 187.7 NYY
6.6 150 156.6 OAK
4.2 170 174.2 LAD
3.5 149 152.5 SEA
2.9 177 179.9 NYM
1.4 159 160.4 CHW
1.2 181 182.2 CHC
1 174 175 MIL
0.2 130 130.2 WAS
-1.3 166 164.7 MIN
-2.8 143 140.2 KAN
-3.4 174 170.6 ARI
-3.7 152 148.3 FLA
-4.8 167 162.2 TOR
-5.3 160 154.7 HOU
-5.7 181 175.3 CLE
-6.9 165 158.1 STL
-8 171 163 TAM
-8.4 153 144.6 TEX
-8.8 169 160.2 COL
-9.4 191 181.6 PHI
-10.5 206 195.5 BOS
-12.6 194 181.4 LAA
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