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Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Beware accumulator bets on non-independent events
See how 27.5MM$ turns into 50$.
Basically, the bettor set up the bets to “douible-or-nothing” on each successive event. Works fine in football, where each event (football game) is actually successive and independent (you bet on the 1 o’clock, 4 o’clock and 8 o’clock games). But when you bet on snow on Christmas in various England cities? Well, chances are, if it snows in one place, it’ll snow in another place too. If you are going to take a bet like that, you are not going to multiply the independent odds as you would in football.
But, the house took the bet. And they are saying “too bad” to the bettor because they have their policy. Of course, had the bettor LOST on one of the cities, he’d have lost on all of the cities. Would the bettor even have realized that he made a bet that would not have been honored, and therefore, would have gotten his money back? I don’t think so. Before they can even talk about this, the house needs to find every single accumulator bet made that should not have been made, and make sure those people get their fair payouts.
It’ll be interesting to see how the arbitration system rules.
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