THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Best Super 2 in arbitration ever?

The genesis of the Super 2 was Roger Clemens.  And, we’ve seen Ryan Howard get what he’s gotten.  Now, it’s Tim Lincecum.

This is what the CBA says:

(12) Criteria
(a) The criteria will be the quality of the Player’s contribution
to his Club during the past season (including but not limited to his
overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public
appeal), the length and consistency of his career contribution, the
record of the Player’s past compensation, comparative baseball
salaries (see paragraph (13) below for confidential salary data),
the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the
Player, and the recent performance record of the Club including
but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication
of public acceptance (subject to the exclusion stated in
subparagraph (b)(i) below). Any evidence may be submitted
which is relevant to the above criteria, and the arbitration panel
shall assign such weight to the evidence as shall appear appropriate
under the circumstances. The arbitration panel shall,
except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service,
give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to
the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding
one annual service group above the Player’s annual service
group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his represen-
tative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance
of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the
arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as
is deemed appropriate.

(13) Confidential Major League Salary Data. For its confidential
use, as background information, the arbitration panel will be
given a tabulation showing the minimum salary in the Major
Leagues and salaries for the preceding season of all players on
Major League rosters as of August 31, broken down by years of
Major League service. The names and Clubs of the Players concerned
will appear on the tabulation. In utilizing the salary tabulation,
the arbitration panel shall consider the salaries of all
comparable Players and not merely the salary of a single Player or
group of Players.

It seems to me that only the salaries of players in 2009 counts.  So, it’s irrelevant what may have happened with Roger Clemens, or Johan Santana, or anyone else for that matter.  The evidence the arbitrators have in hand, with regards to salaries, is only the 2009 salaries.  I don’t see how Lincecum can bring up say Ryan Howard or Derek Jeter or whoever, because the arbitrators don’t have their salaries from when they were first time eligibles.

I presume the club will demand 8, and Lincecum will offer 12 and settle for 10.  (Ryan Howard was demanded 7 and offered 10, and the arbitrators ruled for Howard.)