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Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Best case FOR Jack Morris in HOF
Studes + WPA + Leverage Index =
That’s a whole heck of a lot. Morris posted a fantastic Win Probability Added figure of 0.845 in that seventh game matchup against John Smoltz. Multiply 0.845 times 166 and you get a “Championship WPA” figure of 141. To put that in perspective, the Championship WPA leader of the 2010 regular season was Joey Votto, with eight. Morris’ single moment in the sun had 18 times more “championship value” than Votto’s entire season. If Votto has a long career in line with last year’s performance but rarely makes the postseason, his career Championship WPA won’t be as high as Morris’ single-game total.
Here’s another perspective. Bert Blyleven was 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA in the postseason, while Morris was 7-4, 3.80. This is another reason many of us scorn those who prefer Morris’ Hall credentials over Blyleven’s. But in postseason Championship WPA, Morris beats Blyleven handily 170-32. One game makes that much difference.
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I don’t believe that anyone is consistently applying this kind of logic to Hall candidates.
And that’s exactly the right way to think about it. WPA tracks the “emotional punch” and links it to the players involved. By that logic, Morris’ performance is linked to such a pivotal moment that we confer to him that result. And if someone wants to attach such a huge leverage to such a game, that’s fine. But you have to be consistent about it.
Presumably, if you give him that much value, you’ll get Ray Knight or other World Series MVP make a stronger case too. Maybe instead of giving him 141 wins, you give him +14 wins (just 10% of the leverage of Championship Index). And if you do that, you get him into the gray area. And that’s fine.
Just be consistent.
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