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Wednesday, February 02, 2011
bbFIP and kwERA data for 2010: Felix v Weaver
Good job from Lucas to posting the data.
Interesting how Weaver did so much better than Felix, even though Felix is a huge GB pitcher. Let’s see how that happened. Using Fangraphs, here’s the data:
Felix Weaver
1000 905 PA-IBB
232 233 SO
18 35 IFFB
363 219 GB
201 293 FB
77 54 BB-IBB+HBP
110 96 LD
First thing we’ll do is convert it to a per PA basis:
Felix Weaver
0.232 0.257 SO
0.018 0.039 IFFB
0.363 0.242 GB
0.201 0.324 FB
0.077 0.060 BB-IBB+HBP
0.110 0.106 LD
Now, an infield fly ball has as much run impact as a strikeout, so we can merge those two lines. On the flip side, a line drive is about as damaging as a walk (line drives are mostly hits and some outs, so the hits are much more damaging, but the outs are obviously much more favorable… by good fortune, the run value of a line drive comes out close to that of a walk). So, we’ll merge those lines together too, to give us:
Felix Weaver
0.250 0.296 SO+IFFB
0.363 0.242 GB
0.201 0.324 FB
0.187 0.166 BB-IBB+HBP+LD
Now we see that Weaver starts to come out ahead. He’s way ahead on K+IFFB, and a bit ahead on the BB+LD. We’ll do one last calculation: the strikeout is about as good as the walk is bad. And the GB is about as good as the FB is bad. So, we can subtract the .250 by .187 on Felix to get a K-BB (and accessories) differential. This is what we now get:
Felix Weaver
0.063 0.130 SO+IFFB - (BB-IBB+HBP+LD) (i.e., bigs)
0.162 -0.082 GB-FB (i.e., smalls)
So, now we get to see the big difference. Weaver is ahead by +.067 in the SO and BB numbers, while Felix is ahead by .244 in the GB and FB numbers. However, the SO and BB numebrs are about 3 to 4 times more impactful than the GB and FB numbers. So, Felix being ahead by .244/.067 = 3.6 means… well, they are practically identical.
I think the author might have made a mistake somewhere (unless it’s me). 11 times bigs plus 3 times smalls gives us 1.18 for Felix and 1.19 for Weaver. Regardless of the constant being used, they’re going to get the same bbFIP.
Alternatively, the author said he used a different data source from Fangraphs (BIS), so maybe there’s a huge discrepancy there?
By the way, if sabermetrics really had the impact we think it did on the Cy Young, Weaver would have gotten almost as much love as Felix.
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