THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, April 22, 2011

Bayes and regression, again

By Tangotiger, 05:13 PM

Great post from Kincaid.

Note: a better estimate than .050 as the spread in talent is .060. That’s why I use 69 games as the regression amount equal to 50%. (Kincaid’s example, using .050 as the spread, implies 100 games as the regression amount.)

One easy way to test that 69 is a better number than 100 is to simply take games #1, 3, 5… 137 for each team in pool1, and games 2, 4, 6… 138 in pool2, and run a correlation. You should get r=.50.

(10) Comments • 2011/05/20 • Sabermetrics • Statistical_Theory

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, April 22, 2011

Bayes and regression, again

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